Amusingly, the Globe's sources think that the "botched joke" was pivotal:
According to Kerry associates, the senator's plans changed dramatically in the fallout of his election-eve ``botched joke" about the education levels of US troops. The harsh reaction to that incident -- from many Democrats as well as Republicans -- displayed to Kerry the extreme skepticism within his own party about whether he should mount another run.To most of us, the very idea of another Kerry candidacy was a botched joke in and of itself.
Hat tip to Drudge.
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