Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Nancy's Magickal Oriental Journey, And Other Fantastical Fictions

Nancy Pelosi is a genius. In one brief trip to Jerusalem and Damascus she did what Condoleezza Rice, George W. Bush, Colin Powell, George Mitchell, Bill Clinton, King Abdullah, Madeleine Albright, Dennis Ross, James Baker, Terje Larsen, and a general assembly of others have failed to do.

The Israelis told her they were willing to talk peace with Syria. The Syrians told her they were willing to talk peace with Israel. It's that simple, folks:
She conveyed a message from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that his country is ready to engage in peace talks, and Assad gave assurances of his willingness to participate, Pelosi said.
Actually, she's that much of a folksy simpleton if she believes these wily Oriental gentlemen. If she was credulous enough to believe the show that was put on for her in Damascus (the Arabs call it Sham), she probably bought splinters from the true cross and the bones of seven saints too.

The Daily Star says Syria "constructed a fantasy" - both for her and for themselves. Just as Pelosi apparently believes Bashar al-Assad's placebo promises, some in Syria apparently believe that Pelosi's visit signals a sea change in American policy.

For those who are giddy over Pelosi's mission, I have two responses: a history lesson and a thought experiment.

The history lesson goes back to the Madrid talks in 1991. Syria and Israel were willing to negotiate then, and have been willing ever since. But conditions have proliferated, and continue to. Israel will negotiate only if Syria forswears support for terrorist organizations. Syria will negotiate only if Israel agrees to comprehensive talks with all the Arab countries - including Palestine. But Palestine is currently headed by Hamas, a terrorist organization supported by Syria.

The thought experiment: imagine a member of an Iranian opposition party came to the U.S. trumpeting a promise of better relations if his party came to power. How would we respond? Naturally, it would confirm our preconceived notions of the current regime, right or wrong, and it would ultimately erode our respect for the entire system of government. After all, what self-respecting country allows what-if negotiations by aspirants to power? If President Bush met with such a politician, it would be grounds for his exclusion from politics in most countries, and he might be hung for treason in an uncompromising place like Iran. So how do you think Syrians view America after Pelosi's generous, non-confrontational visit? If the regime there learns anything from it, it is this: that a Democratic president will overlook their intransigence, their thuggery in Lebanon, and their political oppression. They have but to hang on for two years, and maybe help guarantee an American failure in Iraq, to have a kinder, gentler America, and a freer hand in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq.

Update: See the opposing view from our man in Damascus. Prof. Joshua Landis' comments on the Pelosi visit are briefer than his usual. I agree with Dr. Landis that engagement with Syria is better than not - but not in such a way as to allow the Syrians to triangulate to our detriment.

Hostage Crisis Redux, Day 13: FREE!

NEWSFLASH! President Ahmadinejad has promised to free all the hostages today, after pardoning them.

News from a few hours ago noted that UK diplomats had gained direct contact to Foreign Minister Larajani for the first time during the crisis. An apparent confidence-building measure is that one Iranian captive was freed by Iraq yesterday, and an Iranian diplomat will be allowed to meet with the five other captives.

Taking a page from Sen. George Aiken's playbook, Ahmadinejad today declared victory (decorating the Republican Guardsmen who captured the Britons) and let the Brits leave.

Tuesday, April 3, 2007

Setting the Record Straight

President Bush is not to blame for the EPA's unwillingness to regulate CO2 emissions. I won't get into the merits of the case, but the politics is clear: Bush's EPA merely continued its practices, and while he could have made Commonwealth of Massachusetts et al. v. Environmental Protection Agency moot, he did not. For the record, that was a case brought by a Republican governor against a Democratic administration.

So why are environmentalists in love with Al Gore? If as Vice President he couldn't even go as far as the Supreme Court has now gone in regulatory protection, what could they reasonably expect of him as president?

Hostage Crisis Redux, Day 12

Iran is in no hurry to free hostages. As they finish out a second week in captivity, the "new developments" have a deja vu ring to them. A Guardian story reports hopefully that Foreign Minister Larajani is playing good cop/bad cop all on his own.
He gave some conciliatory signals in an interview with Channel Four News, saying the Iranian government was not interested in putting the detainees on trial, but warned that might change if Britain attempted to impose more international pressure on Tehran. "We are not interested in this issue getting more complicated," said Mr Larijani, the secretary-general of Iran's national security council.
Meanwhile, the Independent reports (link overwhelmed by Drudge; secondhand report here) that this is indeed retaliation for the U.S. seizure of Iranian diplomats. The new twist on this old story is that it isn't about the five junior diplomats/Republican Guardsmen, but two very senior officials who had been accompanying them, who the U.S. was really after.

All this is very heavy. For a lighter treatment of the crisis - and for a criticism of the captured sailors and marines that I've been too afraid to make publically - check out Scooter's Report over the past week or so. Hat tip on the link to Global Review reader Doug (pseudonym pending).

Monday, April 2, 2007

Moneyball

Politics is getting more expensive - but it's still a small-ball game. The Washington Post has the scoop:
Eighty percent of [Hillary Clinton's] donations came in amounts of $100 or less.
Not surprisingly, Hillary "The Machine" Clinton is well ahead of most others in fundraising. The key wrinkle is that Barack Obama has not yet disclosed his fundraising, which is expected to be in the $20-25m range. Besides being the root of all kinds of evil, money has a few functions in a political campaign: one is to spend on campaigns and ads; the other is to signal strength to supporters and opponents - and pundits. Money from previous campaigns and personal coffers doesn't fulfill the latter function.

Here's what we have so far:

CandidateNew money raised ($m)Money from old campaignsChatter Ranking
Mitt Romney20.62.3R.3
Rudy Giuliani14R.2
John McCain12.5R.1
************************************
Hillary Clinton2610D.2
Barack Obama????D.1
John Edwards15D.3
Bill Richardson6D.5
Chris Dodd45D.8
Joe Biden31.5D.7

No word on the low-rent candidates. Instead, the news from the cellar today is that Tom Tancredo has entered the race, further crowding the field of "true conservatives" as an issue candidate.

Watching the Game

What do you do when you're at work and the Sox are playing? Go Sox! First pitch in a minute now... and it's a low ball one to Julio Lugo.

Happy New Year!

The baseball season started last night as the Mets beat the Undeserving World Series Champion Cardinals (c) 6 - 1. Today, the rest of the teams kick off the season, and in most places it's beautiful baseball weather.

Baseball is a statistical game prone to sudden poetic outbursts. Since I have no poetry just yet, here's a snapshot of a season just hours old. It's a living, breathing organism, prone to mood swings. It will subtly mature, and at some point we'll realize it's no longer young. Later on, in most markets, will come the realization that this isn't The Year. For now, all hopes are unbounded.
Tampa Bay 1atNew York 3 4th
Kazmirv.Pavano
Atlanta 2atPhiladelphia 1 6th
Smoltzv.Myers
Toronto 3atDetroit 2 5th
Halladayv.Bonderman
Florida 6atWashington 1 4th
Willisv.Patterson
Cleveland 5atChicago 2 1st
Sabathiav.Contreras
Los Angeles 1atMilwaukee 1 2nd
Lowev.Sheets
Chicago 0atCincinatti 2 1st
Zambranov.Harang
Red Sox and others start soon. Behold, all things are made new.