Primary reform has long been overdue: in an age of national media, it doesn't make sense to have a system that assumes states are choosing candidates independently. Several proposals have been floated, some preserving the places of New Hampshire and Iowa, some not. Most proposals call for rotation, at least among the other 48 states, so that late-voting states aren't entirely excluded. This won't fix the inequities of early primaries, but at least it will distribute them more widely.
In the long run, California's move may force reform, but only if it truly destroys the current election. The AP story notes:
California joins a handful of other states that have already scheduled Feb. 5 primaries. But 15 other states – including Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Texas – are considering moving their contests to the same dayImagine if competitors had to buy serious time in the NYC, LA, Chicago, Bay Area, San Diego, Detroit, Houston, Dallas and several smaller markets to seriously compete for the election!
This brave new primary world will have one of two effects. First, a single well-funded candidate could sweep most of the 2/5/08 states. Second, two well-funded candidates could split those states. That would unleash the biggest primary battle of all time. If that happened in both parties... wow. The election of 2008 could be one of the biggest events in American political history, if only for magnitude (rather than substance).
The California move obviously benefits the leftward candidates more. It raises Duncan Hunter's stock. And if California doesn't amend its system to allow proportional delegate selection, it's going to be a huge, enormous winner-take-all mess in the Golden State.
The monthly prediction...
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
| Rank | Candidate | Chatter | Rank Change |
| R.1 | Sen. John McCain | 6,133 | 0 |
| R.2 | Rudy Giuliani | 5,300 | 0 |
| R.3 | Gov. Mitt Romney | 3,867 | 0 |
| R.4 | Newt Gingrich | 1,629 | +4 |
| R.5 | Secy. Condoleezza Rice | 1,252 | +2 |
| R.6 | Sen. Sam Brownback | 1,176 | -2 |
| R.7 | Gov. Mike Huckabee | 902 | -1 |
| R.8 | Sen. Chuck Hagel | 838 | -3 |
| R.9 | Rep. Duncan Hunter | 694 | +1 |
| R.10 | Gov. Jeb Bush | 360 | +1 |
| R.11 | Tommy Thompson | 350 | +3 |
| R.12 | Sen. George Allen | 312 | 0 |
| R.13 | Rep. Tom Tancredo | 271 | -4 |
| R.14 | Gov. George Pataki | 247 | -1 |
| ............... | ............................................... | ....................... | ............... |
| D.1 | Sen. Barack Obama | 7,185 | 0 |
| D.2 | Sen. Hillary Clinton | 6,858 | 0 |
| D.3 | Sen. John Edwards | 5,255 | |
| D.4 | Al Gore | 2,570 | +6 |
| D.5 | Gov. Bill Richardson | 2,283 | +1 |
| D.6 | Sen. John Kerry | 2,247 | -2 |
| D.7 | Sen. Joseph Biden | 2,221 | +1 |
| D.8 | Sen. Christopher Dodd | 1,688 | -1 |
| D.9 | Gov. Tom Vilsack | 1,347 | 0 |
| D.10 | Howard Dean | 943 | +2 |
| D.11 (new) | Rep. Dennis Kucinich | 665 | -6 |
| D.12 | Sen. Russ Feingold | 239 | +1 |
| D.13 | Wesley Clark | 267 | +1 |
| D.14 | Gov. Mark Warner | 223 | +1 |
Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month tested but not qualifying are Ron Paul (536), Al Sharpton (117), Jim Gilmore (258) and Mike Gravel (397). To qualify, a candidate should separate himself from the just-hanging-on types of his own party. Non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Dean). This month, I purged Harry Reid, who is making news as Senate Majority leader and interfering with real rankings here.
See the most recent graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.
1 comment:
It seems I've been leaving out John Cox. He scores 499 on March 22. I think I may have run across his name before... one of several very-low-profile candidates, each claiming to be the "only real conservative" in the race. Spare me.
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