The Hostage Crisis, Redux

Update: See news roundups from Thursday and Friday on the developing crisis.

The news today [March 28] on the Iran hostage crisis, 2007 edition.

• Iran continues to insist the sailors were in Iranian waters.
• The UK has cut off bilateral ties.
• Iran may put the hostages on TV - and release the female hostage.
• The U.S. is mustering ground, air, and sea forces.
• Meanwhile, Bush and Putin are discussing Iran's nuclear ambitions
• And as of lately, The British government has received no assurance that the female sailor will be freed.

The following map was distributed by the Ministry of Defence along with a full explanation of the incident, from the British point of view. Vice Admiral Charles Style was unambiguous (a word much bandied about in this eminently ambiguous crisis):

"Our [routine] boarding [of an Indian merchant vessel] started at 0739 local time and was completed at 0910 with the merchant vessel having been cleared to continue with her business. Communications were lost with the boarding team as the boarding was finishing … at 0910. HMS CORNWALL's Lynx helicopter, which had been covering the initial stages of the boarding, immediately returned to the scene to locate the boarding team.

"The helicopter reported that the two seaboats were being escorted by Iranian Islamic Republican Guard Navy vessels towards the Shatt 'Al Arab Waterway and were now inside Iranian territorial waters. Debriefing of the helicopter crew and a conversation with the master of the merchant ship both indicate that the boarding team were ambushed while disembarking from the merchant vessel."

GPS readings from the seaboats, helicopter, and merchant vessel all confirm that the incident took place at anchor in Iraqi waters, according to Style.

This incident is not so much about who is right as it is about why this is continuing. Would Iran have turned the sailors over if the UK had apologized for an inadvertant mistake? Why is Iran worsening its already tenuous situation in the world community by making a huge stink over what is at worst a marginal infraction? If a military buildup occurs, how quickly will the Iranians snap and fire the first shot? Is a war exactly what they want?

Two things seem clear to me in this mess: Ahmedinejad's regime is willing to take huge risks; the Persian people must be availed of outside information so they know what their government is doing and how the world perceives it. They, not the government, will pay the highest cost for the latter's rash behavior.