Hillary v. Obama

The Hillary camp has come out swinging against Barack Obama. It's rare to see vitriol this early in the campaign; after all, candidates are going for name recognition now, not differentiation. But when Barack Obama arrived on the scene, the Hillaryites had to fight back.

Why? Because Obama is blacker than Hillary.

Bill Clinton was so in tune with Black America that he was half-jokingly called the 'first black president'. Hillary has the same team and the same connections, but she doesn't have the same persona as Bill nor the ability to connect with voters. And now, she doesn't have the luxury of facing a field with only token black opposition.

The CS Monitor records that blacks are warming to Obama. That's a big chunk of primary voters, especially in South Carolina and Florida (both scheduled for January 29th). Of course, blacks alone can't swing an election, but they may be able to sway others to their candidate.

Consider that the other big, motivated chunk of Democratic primary voters is the anti-war crowd. Hillary's calibrated triangulation on the war has been aimed at the general election from the start; she did not count on a serious primary threat from an anti-war candidate. Obama, however, arrived late enough in the Senate to know the smart position on the war - and is black, so his opposition is all the more believable. With favorite Russ Feingold out of the running, these primary voters will go with the anti-war candidate they consider most likely to defeat Hillary. And Obama is poised to be that man.

Still, blacks and anti-war voters may not be enough. Primaries put a premium on momentum, and Hillary is likely to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire convincingly. To stay in the running, Obama will have to keep himself far enough above Edwards and the rest of the pack to be seen as the clear alternative to Hillary in Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida.