From Drudge:
- Mitt Romney 21%
- Rudy Giuliani 17%
- Sam Brownback 15%
- Newt Gingrich 14%
- John McCain, 12%
- 79% would support a candidate who called himself a "Reagan Republican" over a "GW Bush Republican" (3%)
- Core ideology: 50% say government size, 30% say social issues, 18% say security.
This confirms another poll reported by the LA Times today that shows Romney leading among party insiders. There's an essay I've been planning to write on this topic; now's as good a time as any.
Why Christian Conservatives Will Love Mitt Romney
Much has been made of Mitt Romney's Mormon faith. Polling Report today notes that only 40% of registered voters believe America is ready for a Mormon president, as compared to a woman (60%), twice-divorced (65%), or Black (69%) president. In particular, will Romney be able to find any GOP primary voters in the space between Christian conservatives on the right and security-first moderates on the left? I think he will, because he's the best choice available for Christian conservatives.
Mitt Romney is not a Christian. That's Fact #1 from the perspective of the 'Religious Right'. If he ever claims to be one, his candidacy is over. But he does believe in one God, he supports family values, he's not afraid to fight culture wars, and he's supportive of people of faith in politics. And that's all that conservative Christians want.
Contrary to liberal fear-mongering, Christians do not want a theocratic state. With myriad divisions in theology and policy, no politician could get more than a small minority behind any really "faith-based" policy. Rather, Christians want fair treatment from the government (which accepts de facto the theology of secular humanism) and conservative social policies.
Romney supports all the key Christian-conservative stances, but without the identity crisis that an overtly Christian (Brownback and Huckabee come to mind) president would precipitate. By voting for Romney, Christians can convince themselves and others that they really are policy-driven, not just a tribal group pushing its own members. This is the same impulse that made Joe Lieberman popular nationally. Americans are people of civic as well as personal faith, and they want to be represented by someone who shares their civic faith. They'd like to be led by someone who represents their personal faith as well, presumably, but with the range of personal beliefs within American Christianity, this is never going to push a candidate over the top. In fact, Romney's Mormonism could help him, since he's got the civic faith down pat, and America's Mormons will be working overtime for their man.
What about that great hope of conservative Christianity, Sam Brownback? He polled well today, too. And no-one can take Senator Brownback's accomplishments away from him: he has spearheaded AIDS victim relief (not just prevention) in Africa, and been very thoughtful in domestic policy as well. But that's not enough. He lacks experience outside the Senate, and senators in general make poor candidates. Also, placing his candidacy in the same rubric as Romney's, he has failed to separate his personal faith from his civic faith. For him, as for me, faith is absolute, and cannot be compartmentalized. Neither of us will be president.
The other candidate who could draw votes away from Romney is Newt Gingrich. He's not particularly religious, but he occupies the same policy-space and will attract the kind of voters who want a proven fiscal conservative. But Newt isn't going to decide on the race until the fall, and by then it will be too late. He has huge negatives (64% in a Feb 13-14 poll), and the other candidates are going to be millions deep by summer.
As for the concern that Romney will do the bidding of the prophets in Utah, the same concern didn't stop Jack Kennedy, and it doesn't hurt that the leader of the loyal opposition - Sen. Harry Reid - is also a Mormon, and disagrees with Romney on most issues.
Early primary voters will decide the Republican nomination even more than they do the Democratic nomination. Republicans are running scared, and thinking about electability; the alternative is a unified Democratic government. The early voters - in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina - will take their responsibility very seriously and do a lot of research. Sophisticated voters are good for sophisticated candidates; and they're going to give the kiss of death to unelectables like Gingrich and Brownback long before the elections take place.
2 comments:
Doesn't Romney, like other Mormons, consider himself a Christian?
Likewise, I bet than millions of Americans consider Romney a "Christian." He believes in God & Jesus, goes to church, holds to typical Christian morals & rules.
Also, while Mormonism is vastly different from protestantism in its theology, there's no escaping the fact that it was birthed from the protestant American culture, and thus bears many important cultural similarities to American protestantism. Compared to Catholicism, Mormonism is probably closer to mainstream protestantism in culture, even though Catholicism is far closer in terms of theology. And in elections, culture is more important than theology.
Yes and no. A lot of American Protestants think of Mormonism as an out-and-out cult. Recall the poll - less than half say America is 'ready' for a Mormon president. They didn't even perform that poll for "Catholic".
Mormons only 'believe in' Jesus in the sense that Muslims do.
If Romney were to publicly call himself a Christian (as opposed to saying, as he has done, "I believe in God"), he would immediately lose all support from evangelical leaders. And he needs at least some of those guys in his corner to win this.
Post a Comment