Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Free-for-All 2008: Why the Downturn?

From the way the chatter over the 2008 election has gone over the summer, you would think the election had been called off. Hillary Clinton is down to just 1,320, her lowest level since the poll began, and she's never been out of the top Democratic spot. A few politicians are prospering: McCain ticked back up after a weak August, Frist, Jeb Bush, and Condi saw modest gains probably unrelated to the election. On the Democratic side, only Mark Warner and Barack Obama saw gains, but they burgeoned indeed. Warner's numbers come from an excellent showing in a recent poll of Virginians, and his unashamed campaigning across the country. Obama has also been to Iowa and calls for a presidential run in 2008. With more and more Democrats realizing that the empress has no clothes, either Obama or Warner could become the DLC-wing candidate in 2008.

The monthly prediction...
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Rank Candidate ChatterRank Change
R.1 Sen. John McCain 1,5700
R.2 Gov. Mitt Romney 8490
R.3 Sen. George Allen 562+3
R.4 Sen. Bill Frist 557-1
R.5 Rudy Giuliani 4890
R.6 Secy. Condoleezza Rice 384+3
R.7 Gov. George Pataki 231-3
R.8 Gov. Mike Huckabee 202-1
R.9 Gov. Jeb Bush 200+2
R.10 Newt Gingrich 175-3
R.11 Sen. Chuck Hagel 126-1
R.12 Sen. Sam Brownback 680
R.13 Rep. Tom Tancredo 210
D.1 Sen. Hillary Clinton 1,3200
D.2 Sen. John Kerry 9530
D.3 Al Gore 6970
D.4 Sen. John Edwards 6260
D.5 Gov. Mark Warner 599+6
D.6 Sen. Barack Obama 588+7
D.7 Howard Dean 496-1
D.8 (tie) Gov. Bill Richardson 3710
D.8 (tie) Sen. Evan Bayh 371+1
D.10 Sen. Joseph Biden 368+2
D.11 Sen. Russ Feingold 273-1
D.12 Sen. Harry Reid 271-7
D.13 Gov. Tom Vilsack 195-8
D.14 Wesley Clark 470
D.15 Tom Daschle 220

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. Tom Tancredo and Tom Daschle will be purged if they continue to perform at abysmal levels for another month. Tested but not qualifying: Sen. Chris Dodd.

See the Chatter Rankings from August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.

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