Monday, August 21, 2006

Free-for-All-2008: Midsummer

All of this reflects things as of July 19th, 2006. The searches were done by me in North Africa.

Many candidates showed large increases in raw chatter, and very few (only 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans) experienced declines, and of these only Jeb Bush declined sharply.

The monthly prediction...
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Check out graphs of the Chatter Rankings from May 2005 through April 2006

Rank Candidate ChatterRank Change
R.1 Sen. John McCain 1,8700
R.2 Sen. Bill Frist 1,6100
R.3 Gov. Mitt Romney 1,080+5
R.4 Sen. George Allen 1,0300
R.5 Sen. Sam Brownback 691+5
R.6 Rudy Giuliani 679-1
R.7 Sen. Chuck Hagel 528+5
R.8 Secy. Condoleezza Rice 426-2
R.9 Gov. George Pataki 334-2
R.10 Gov. Mike Huckabee 212-1
R.11 Gov. Jeb Bush 195-8
R.12 Newt Gingrich 193-1
R.13 Rep. Tom Tancredo 180
D.1 Sen. Hillary Clinton 2,9100
D.2 Sen. John Kerry 2,4500
D.3 Sen. Russ Feingold 1,470+4
D.4 Sen. Harry Reid 1,0200
D.5 Al Gore 931-2
D.6 Sen. John Edwards 740-1
D.7 Sen. Evan Bayh 601+4
D.8 Gov. Mark Warner 415+1
D.9 Howard Dean 365-1
D.10 Sen. Joseph Biden 323-4
D.11 Gov. Tom Vilsack 316+2
D.12 Sen. Barack Obama 306-2
D.13 Gov. Bill Richardson 227-1
D.14 Wesley Clark 1810
D.15 Tom Daschle 1250

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month's tested-but-not-qualifying list is Rep. John Murtha, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, and Haley Barbour. Some of the men on the list almost surely won't run for president (Reid, Dean) and are there just in case, or as an indication of VP popularity.

See the Chatter Rankings from June, May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.


Charlie said...

Chuck Hagel saw an impressive jump in that poll. He's who I'd like to see in 2008.

Michael McNeill said...

George Allen's chatter will probably go way up on the next search, but not because he's pulling ahead. Interesting to see that not long ago you had him as the Republican nominee.

Chops said...

Thanks for your comments. I agree Michael, I would have expected a huge jump in Allen's chatter from July to August because of the "macaca" comment. In fact (as will be published later today) he saw a slight decline. What that tells me is that newspapers are now considering him less as a candidate for 2008, and the news stories with the "macaca" comment didn't cover him as a presidential candidate. Obviously, he's not going to be the frontrunning Republican anymore.

And Charlie, I see you're a big supporter of Mr. Allen. Love to hear your comments in more detail at some point.