A Child's War

I have been asked by a few people for my opinion on the latest war in the Middle East, which seems to have drawn to an uncertain conclusion only recently.

Israel, to my mind, was little better than a petulent child in escalating a border incident to a full-fledged war. I also agree with many Lebanese that Hezbollah has been a poor guest of Lebanon in bringing this war on themselves: if you live next door to a monster, don't taunt it!

Hezbollah started the war by killing ten Israeli soldiers and capturing two in a cross-border raid, occuring while Israel was thundering against Palestinians in Gaza over another captured serviceman. Attacking violently on such a scale across a border is clearly cassus belli, but only against the aggressor. According to Israeli arguments, Lebanon's failure to rein in Hezbollah makes them a party to the latter's aggression. What makes this argument specious is the well-known fact that Hezbollah is stronger that Lebanon, especially in south and east Lebanon, and could probably win a direct conflict between the two militaries. So Israel could have reasonably bombed Hezbollah installments or carried out counter-raids; but to attack Lebanon generally was not warranted.

What's more, Israel acted directly against their own interest. What could be better for Israel than an Arab ally in an economically powerful neighbor? I have long held that open trade between Lebanon and Israel would bring a boom to both countries and be the biggest step in rebuilding the old internal lines of trade in the Middle East. And Lebanon took the biggest step toward that end this past year, throwing off the Syrian mantle and re-establishing legitimate democracy (see Wikipedia). As part of that democracy, Hezbollah participates, and in the context of that democracy finds that it must compromise and work with other parties, Muslim and Christian, to meet its goals. Like no other system, democracy disarms angry mass movements.

Obviously, Israel's assault on the Lebanese state put the nascent democracy in jeopardy. Syria could have come back in to "protect" Lebanon; pro-Syrian parties could still sway elections toward inviting Syria back in if Lebanese feel they need protection. It is a testament to the tenacity of the Lebanese reformers that their movement has thus far survived; it is a testament to the immaturity, petulence, and nearsightedness of Israeli policymakers that they would put such progress in jeopardy in order to express their wrath.