Saturday, March 4, 2006

Free-For-All 2008: The Old New Democrats

Sideshow 2006
Don't tell the Democrats, but they could easily sweep the 2006 House elections on one issue: Pork. All it takes is 218 committed Congressmen to stop pork cold. A simple, universal campaign promise to Say No To Pork would propel Democrats to decisive victories in every close race. Think about it: if you're an undecided voter, you obviously don't have huge priorities tied to the spending habits of either party. Instead, you'll jump all over a bandwagon that promises to simply and suddenly stop pork.
The Democrats are like the New York Yankees: most of them had their best years in the 1990's. Check it out: Hillary, Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Richardson and now Al Gore, are consistently among the top pollers. That's the Class of '04 plus three Clinton-administration grandees. Mark Warner is the only outsider with a legitimate shot at the top of the ticket. And how well will he go over with the Democratic base? The issues that motivate Dem primary voters are the Iraq War (anti), the environment (pro), tax cuts (anti), and abortion (pro). Hillary has little cachet on the first two, Edwards only has cachet on the tax cuts, Richardson and Warner are unknown quantities, and Dean isn't going to run.

And while John Kerry doesn't know it yet, his present 'leadership of the party' is like Ted Kennedy's: he has the privilege of saying all the things that people who want to be president can't say. And while he has his party's firm support, nobody outside the Heinz ketchup factory thinks he's electable.

And Gore? I was shocked to see Gore listed as a potential candidate in a New Hampshire paper, and plugged by Dick Morris. Honestly, I'd give him better odds than Kerry. If, for some reason, Hillary can get no traction AND the electorate is desperate for a return to the Clinton administration AND the environment is a big issue in the primaries, Al has a chance.

The monthly prediction doesn't change; it won't be an interesting metric before a few more iterations:

Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice.
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice.

Post your predictions and ideas in the comments!

Rank Candidate ChatterRank Change
R.T1 Sen. John McCain 1,0100
R.T1 Secy. Condoleezza Rice 1,010+1
R.3 Gov. George Pataki 557+2
R.4 Sen. Bill Frist 546-1
R.5 Rudy Giuliani 518+3
R.6 Gov. Mitt Romney 399-2
R.7 Sen. George Allen 369-1
R.8 Sen. Chuck Hagel 213+4
R.9 Gov. Mike Huckabee 201+2
R.10 Sen. Sam Brownback 199-3
R.11 Gov. Jeb Bush 179-2
R.12 Newt Gingrich 110-2
D.1 Sen. Hillary Clinton 2,5400
D.2 Sen. John Kerry 861+1
D.3 Howard Dean 501+5
D.4 Al Gore 389new
D.5 Gov. Mark Warner 351-3
D.6 Sen. Evan Bayh 338+3
D.7 Sen. John Edwards 321-3
D.8 Gov. Bill Richardson 294+4
D.9 Sen. Russ Feingold 260-2
D.10 Sen. Harry Reid 221-5
D.11 Sen. Joseph Biden 122-5
D.12 Gov. Tom Vilsack 121-1
D.13 Sen. Barack Obama 78-3

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month's tested-but-not-qualifying list is Tom Daschle, Haley Barbour (who said this week that he will not run for president), Wesley Clark and Tom Tancredo. Some of the folks on the list almost surely won't run for president (Reid, Jeb Bush) and are there just in case, or as an indication of VP popularity. Remember that the VP doesn't have to be a primary candidate: that's how I think Condi will land the #2 job, since the GOP will need a woman against Hillary, and who else is there?

See the Chatter Rankings from February, December, August, July, June, and May.


Chops said... visitors:
Welcome! Please leave your comments on how valuable you think my "chatter rankings" are, and what you think of how '06 and '08 will shape up.

Also of interest might to you might be today's post, reporting an important internal development in Iran that has gone unreported in the Globe and elsewhere.

Thanks for visiting!

Kit Robinson said...

bGore is rock solid with the left wing of the party; the same folks who have the most punch in the primary process. He has much more credibilty than Dean or, for that matter, Kerry had in 04. He won a majority vote in 2000 and if anything he has more credibility and popularity now, especially in light of the revealed bush debacles since then. I still like Bayh, personally, and will support him in the primaries if he can show stength there. But should al gore run and become the nominee, I think he'd be a great candidate as well! Anybody but Hillary!!!

Anonymous said...

if i'm not a mistaken shouldn't there be an article on the Red sox and spring training arriving soon?
A lil speculation on Manny being Manny, and the new JOhnny Damon t-shirt which states, "Looks like Jesus, acts like Judas, throws like Mary".

ChiZaD said...

Nice, but I bet the Russ Feingold chatter goes up a bit since his censure resolution has gone to the floor! I like that guy, at least he is fighting to get some accountability in the white house!