Don't tell the Democrats, but they could easily sweep the 2006 House elections on one issue: Pork. All it takes is 218 committed Congressmen to stop pork cold. A simple, universal campaign promise to Say No To Pork would propel Democrats to decisive victories in every close race. Think about it: if you're an undecided voter, you obviously don't have huge priorities tied to the spending habits of either party. Instead, you'll jump all over a bandwagon that promises to simply and suddenly stop pork.
And while John Kerry doesn't know it yet, his present 'leadership of the party' is like Ted Kennedy's: he has the privilege of saying all the things that people who want to be president can't say. And while he has his party's firm support, nobody outside the Heinz ketchup factory thinks he's electable.
And Gore? I was shocked to see Gore listed as a potential candidate in a New Hampshire paper, and plugged by Dick Morris. Honestly, I'd give him better odds than Kerry. If, for some reason, Hillary can get no traction AND the electorate is desperate for a return to the Clinton administration AND the environment is a big issue in the primaries, Al has a chance.
The monthly prediction doesn't change; it won't be an interesting metric before a few more iterations:
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice.
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice.
Post your predictions and ideas in the comments!
|R.T1||Sen. John McCain||1,010||0|
|R.T1||Secy. Condoleezza Rice||1,010||+1|
|R.3||Gov. George Pataki||557||+2|
|R.4||Sen. Bill Frist||546||-1|
|R.6||Gov. Mitt Romney||399||-2|
|R.7||Sen. George Allen||369||-1|
|R.8||Sen. Chuck Hagel||213||+4|
|R.9||Gov. Mike Huckabee||201||+2|
|R.10||Sen. Sam Brownback||199||-3|
|R.11||Gov. Jeb Bush||179||-2|
|D.1||Sen. Hillary Clinton||2,540||0|
|D.2||Sen. John Kerry||861||+1|
|D.5||Gov. Mark Warner||351||-3|
|D.6||Sen. Evan Bayh||338||+3|
|D.7||Sen. John Edwards||321||-3|
|D.8||Gov. Bill Richardson||294||+4|
|D.9||Sen. Russ Feingold||260||-2|
|D.10||Sen. Harry Reid||221||-5|
|D.11||Sen. Joseph Biden||122||-5|
|D.12||Gov. Tom Vilsack||121||-1|
|D.13||Sen. Barack Obama||78||-3|
Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month's tested-but-not-qualifying list is Tom Daschle, Haley Barbour (who said this week that he will not run for president), Wesley Clark and Tom Tancredo. Some of the folks on the list almost surely won't run for president (Reid, Jeb Bush) and are there just in case, or as an indication of VP popularity. Remember that the VP doesn't have to be a primary candidate: that's how I think Condi will land the #2 job, since the GOP will need a woman against Hillary, and who else is there?
See the Chatter Rankings from February, December, August, July, June, and May.