Free-For-All 2008: The Old New Democrats

Sideshow 2006 Don't tell the Democrats, but they could easily sweep the 2006 House elections on one issue: Pork. All it takes is 218 committed Congressmen to stop pork cold. A simple, universal campaign promise to Say No To Pork would propel Democrats to decisive victories in every close race. Think about it: if you're an undecided voter, you obviously don't have huge priorities tied to the spending habits of either party. Instead, you'll jump all over a bandwagon that promises to simply and suddenly stop pork.

The Democrats are like the New York Yankees: most of them had their best years in the 1990's. Check it out: Hillary, Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Richardson and now Al Gore, are consistently among the top pollers. That's the Class of '04 plus three Clinton-administration grandees. Mark Warner is the only outsider with a legitimate shot at the top of the ticket. And how well will he go over with the Democratic base? The issues that motivate Dem primary voters are the Iraq War (anti), the environment (pro), tax cuts (anti), and abortion (pro). Hillary has little cachet on the first two, Edwards only has cachet on the tax cuts, Richardson and Warner are unknown quantities, and Dean isn't going to run.

And while John Kerry doesn't know it yet, his present 'leadership of the party' is like Ted Kennedy's: he has the privilege of saying all the things that people who want to be president can't say. And while he has his party's firm support, nobody outside the Heinz ketchup factory thinks he's electable.

And Gore? I was shocked to see Gore listed as a potential candidate in a New Hampshire paper, and plugged by Dick Morris. Honestly, I'd give him better odds than Kerry. If, for some reason, Hillary can get no traction AND the electorate is desperate for a return to the Clinton administration AND the environment is a big issue in the primaries, Al has a chance.

The monthly prediction doesn't change; it won't be an interesting metric before a few more iterations:

Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice.
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice.

Post your predictions and ideas in the comments!

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.T1	Sen. John McCain	1,010	0
R.T1	Secy. Condoleezza Rice	1,010	+1
R.3	Gov. George Pataki	557	+2
R.4	Sen. Bill Frist	546	-1
R.5	Rudy Giuliani	518	+3
R.6	Gov. Mitt Romney	399	-2
R.7	Sen. George Allen	369	-1
R.8	Sen. Chuck Hagel	213	+4
R.9	Gov. Mike Huckabee	201	+2
R.10	Sen. Sam Brownback	199	-3
R.11	Gov. Jeb Bush	179	-2
R.12	Newt Gingrich	110	-2
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Hillary Clinton	2,540	0
D.2	Sen. John Kerry	861	+1
D.3	Howard Dean	501	+5
D.4	Al Gore	389	new
D.5	Gov. Mark Warner	351	-3
D.6	Sen. Evan Bayh	338	+3
D.7	Sen. John Edwards	321	-3
D.8	Gov. Bill Richardson	294	+4
D.9	Sen. Russ Feingold	260	-2
D.10	Sen. Harry Reid	221	-5
D.11	Sen. Joseph Biden	122	-5
D.12	Gov. Tom Vilsack	121	-1
D.13	Sen. Barack Obama	78	-3

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month's tested-but-not-qualifying list is Tom Daschle, Haley Barbour (who said this week that he will not run for president), Wesley Clark and Tom Tancredo. Some of the folks on the list almost surely won't run for president (Reid, Jeb Bush) and are there just in case, or as an indication of VP popularity. Remember that the VP doesn't have to be a primary candidate: that's how I think Condi will land the #2 job, since the GOP will need a woman against Hillary, and who else is there?

See the Chatter Rankings from February, December, August, July, June, and May.