Saturday, December 16, 2006

Free-for-All 2008

I did not expect this month's rankings to be much more helpful than last month's. Candidates who are announcing that they will (or won't!) run generate more news than they should. However, things actually look remarkably stable, and not only at the extremes. On the Republican side, the results are almost astounding: two non-contenders who were big newsmakers in the 2006 cycle have dropped off the map, Sam Brownback has leapt to 'contender' level, but everyone else has held their relative places, despite newly announced candidacies and publicity stunts.

Likewise, while Obamania has propelled Illinois' junior senator to the two-hole, Hillary still reigns supreme. After the elections, the Democrats have a clear advantage, with Nancy Pelosi taking center-stage as a combative Washington insider, enabling her compatriots to rack up frequent-flyer miles to Manchester and Des Moines. Their electoral success probably helped "new" Democrats (Obama, of course, but also Clinton and Richardson) and hurt establishment warriors Kerry, Edwards, and Gore. Pelosi and co. proved that Democrats can win nationally, suggesting that the problem in 2000 and 2004 wasn't the message, it was the messengers.

The monthly prediction...
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Rank Candidate ChatterRank Change
R.1 Sen. John McCain 8,9700
R.2 Gov. Mitt Romney 4,170+1
R.3 Rudy Giuliani 3,810+1
R.4 Sen. Bill Frist 2,450+1
R.5 Sen. Sam Brownback 2,170+7
R.6 Secy. Condoleezza Rice 1,940+1
R.7 Gov. Mike Huckabee 1,640+1
R.8 Rep. Duncan Hunter 1,520+1
R.9 Newt Gingrich 1,110+1
R.10 Gov. George Pataki 1,100+1
R.11 Sen. Chuck Hagel 863+2
R.12 Sen. George Allen 718-10
R.13 Tommy Thompson 658+1
R.14 Gov. Jeb Bush 308-8
D.1 Sen. Hillary Clinton 6,9700
D.2 Sen. Barack Obama 5,780+1
D.3 Sen. John Kerry 4,440-1
D.4 Sen. John Edwards 3,710+2
D.5 Gov. Tom Vilsack 3,3500
D.6 Sen. Harry Reid 2,970-2
D.7 Sen. Joseph Biden 2,5800
D.8 Sen. Evan Bayh 2,260+6
D.9 Gov. Bill Richardson 1,760+2
D.10 Sen. Christopher Dodd 1,220+3
D.11 Al Gore 1,210-3
D.12 Howard Dean 917-2
D.13 Sen. Russ Feingold 726-1
D.14 Gov. Mark Warner 684-6
D.15 Wesley Clark 4470

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. Last month's rankings had errant counting on the GOP side; that has been fixed.

See graphs of the past Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.

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