Seeing Somalia

U.S. papers are following the experts closely in their 'reporting' on the war between Ethiopia and Somalia's Islamic Courts Union the past few days, in no small part because there are only a handful of reporters in the region. For their part, the experts are following Iraq's example to predict what will happen in Somalia.

The Washington Post quotes David Shinn, a former ambassador to Ethiopia:

"Over the long term, I don't see where this gets them. And one wonders how long they can hang on in this situation, because eventually it's going to turn into a nasty guerrilla war, and I don't think the Ethiopians have the stomach to carry on with that kind of campaign."

Later:

It was unclear where the Islamic fighters went. Some were spotted with their battle gear around Mogadishu; analysts said it was likely that most headed into the bush to prepare for a war on their own terms.

And in another article:

"Hasn't anyone heard of Iraq?" said John Prendergast, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group in Washington. "A military strategy of 'countering terrorism' never works and will likely blow up in their faces."

This is precisely what the Islamic Courts want their enemies to think. If true, it makes them dangerous; if false, it amounts to a good bluff.

So what's a civilization to do? Western secular democracy is threatened by a violent world force - militant Islam - which has proven to be as deadly to eradicate as to ignore. Prendergast, Shinn, and others would have Ethiopia leave Somalia to the Islamic Courts. What would result? Taliban-like laws have already been enacted, and conceivably the Courts could reconquer autonomous Puntland and independent Somaliland (sidenote: it's better late than never for the U.S. to recognize Somaliland). A government relying on theocratic fear and uniting its people using militant anger towards outsiders is bound to go to war; else it loses its legitimacy.

For Ethiopia, a third war with Somalia was inevitable under the Courts. Ethiopia had the luxury of being able to choose the time. They chose wisely.

The Courts are not yet deeply rooted, and if there is any hope for a peaceful, secular Somalia, it is to abort this government before it takes full form. The people can still withdraw their support, and the Courts have almost no bureaucratic infrastructure. A swift punitive thrust by a powerful neighbor may be sufficient to turn Somalis away from the Courts.

The best-case scenario is that support for the Courts dries up quickly, and the recognized government can imitate the Courts in public works, and accomplish calm, but without the violent rhetoric and daily executions.

This is unlikely, but in any event it is difficult to imagine Somalis waging any kind of war - terrorist or otherwise - against the Ethiopian homeland. If the Courts survive, Ethiopia will quickly and convincingly respond to any attack. If the Courts collapse, their potential recruits will be swallowed up by whatever configuration of the ongoing Somali civil war follows this one. Either way, Ethiopia won't dawdle in Somalia, so they won't be there to kill.

So Somalia isn't Iraq; or, perhaps more insightfully, Ethiopia isn't America.