Iraq II or World War III?

The NYTimes reports on the coming war between Ethiopia and the newly unified Somali Islamists. After fifteen years of chaos, Somalis are united around a common - and old - enemy. Shades of Mohamed Siad Barre. Shades of the Taliban. Shades of the Crusades.

"I am ready to die," said Osama Abdi Rahim, dressed head to toe in camouflage and marching around with a loaded rifle. He is 7 years old.

Ethiopia is the West's 'agent' in the region (as it has been since 1500), shoring up the pitiful, internationally recognized government in Baidoa (map here). The Islamists control Mogadishu and enjoy the support of most Somalis.

Their troops, which United Nations officials say are secretly getting weapons from several Arab countries and Eritrea, have encircled Baidoa and are vowing to wage war against the Ethiopian forces unless they leave. Ethiopian convoys have been attacked, and the Islamists recently skirmished with soldiers from Baidoa, with dozens reported killed. That taste of war seems to have whetted the appetite for more.

America has an ugly history in this region. You've all seen Black Hawk Down, and you should read it, so you know how swimmingly the 1993 UN intervention went. More recently, the U.S. covertly supported the warlords against the Islamists. That backfired.

Ethiopia's history isn't much better. It's been a holdout against Islam in East Africa for centuries, and is a 'Christian' country where 60% of the citizens are Muslims, and treated as an unpopular minority. Many of these live in the Ogaden desert and identify as Somalis; Ethiopia fought off Somalia in 1977-1978 for control of the Ogaden.

Using Ethiopia as a proxy to fight the Islamists could lead to a spreading war. Chad is already in civil war, as is Eastern Sudan. The Sudanese might be able to end the Darfur crisis by following the Somali model: unite against a common - Christian - enemy. If Ethiopia is attacking a fellow Islamist government, Sudan could force a two-front war by attacking from the north. Likewise, Eritrea, always scrappy with its former lords, could engage from the east. Uganda's civil war has seen a break in the clouds of late, but Joseph Kony couldn't resist finding a new role for his LRA in a general East African war. That could link up the East African conflicts with the Central African conflicts, which the UN has been damping for ten years in the Congo and all its neighbors.

Admittedly, that's a doomsday scenario. More realistically, Ethiopia could quickly annihilate the pathetic Somalian military. But then what? The Times reports that the Ethiopians have already seen the first Iraq-style roadside bombs and suicide bombs ever used in Somalia. Pacifying Somalia is out of the question.

The other option is to negotiate with the Islamists. The Times presents that option:

"The Islamists aren’t going away, so the sooner we talk to them, the better," said Representative Donald M. Payne, the New Jersey Democrat who is expected to become the chairman of the House subcommittee on Africa when his party takes control of Congress in January.

In Mogadishu the Islamists are continuing their hearts-and-minds campaign, organizing neighborhood cleanups, delivering food to the needy and resuscitating old national institutions like the Supreme Court, which was given a fresh coat of paint and reopened in October.

Streets that were clogged with years of debris are now clear and bureaucracy is budding, with more rules and more paperwork, including forms at the airport that ask name, age, nationality and religion — Muslim or non-Muslim being the only choices.

All the talk of slaughtering Ethiopian invaders and their American sponsors, though, seems to have brought out a harsher side of the Islamic administration. Nearly every day, rings of people gather on Mogadishu’s streets to watch lashings, and the crowds cheer as leather whips cut canals into flesh. One Islamic leader in a town north of Mogadishu recently issued an edict threatening that anyone who did not pray five times a day would be beheaded.

"It’s black and white," said the leader, Hussein Barre Rage. "The Koran says people must pray."