Mog Falls

The NYTimes just reported that Mogadishu has fallen to Somali Transitional National Government (TNG) and Ethiopian forces after being abandoned last night by the Islamic Courts. The Times' quick-and-dirty rundown of the backstory up to today is an echo of what Global Review predicted two nights ago:

The Islamists started out as a grass-roots movement of clan elders and religious leaders who banded together earlier this year to rid Mogadishu of its notorious warlords, earning them a lot of public support. But much of that good will seems to have been sapped by their decision to go to war against the transitional government and the Ethiopian forces protecting it.

The Islamists attacked Baidoa, the seat of the transitional government, on Dec. 20; a few days later, they announced that Somalia was open to Muslim fighters around the world who wanted to wage a holy war against Christian-led Ethiopia. That provoked a crushing counter-attack by the Ethiopians, who command the strongest military in East Africa. For the past week, the Islamists have lost one battle after another, their adolescent soldiers no match for a professional army.

But that doesn't mean the war is over. In fact, with the Islamists out of the way, Somali clans are taking up their favorite hobby again: wasting each other.

Mogadishu's new powers immediately had to deal with a rising level of chaos, as armed bandits swept the city and fragmented clan militia began to battle each other for the spoils of war. Witnesses said an intense gun battle raged around a former Islamist ammunition dump and that clan warlords had instantly reverted back to setting up roadside checkpoints and shaking down motorists for money. Many terrified residents stayed in their homes behind bolted doors and the few that ventured into the streets carried guns. "No one is really in command," said one adviser to Western diplomats who has close contacts with both the Islamists and the transitional government. "Chaos is in command."

The next 48 hours may be the most crucial in the war. If the Ethiopian-backed TNG can pacify Mog, peace may actually come. Otherwise, we're back in 1992.