Two politicians with little name recognition outside the Beltway announced their candidacies this week: Duncan Hunter (R-CA), Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Tommy Thompson, former Wisconsin governor and HHS secretary. Nevertheless, for the record:
The monthly prediction...
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
| Rank | Candidate | Chatter | Rank Change |
| R.1 | Sen. John McCain | 5,240 | 0 |
| R.2 | Sen. George Allen | 3,590 | +1 |
| R.3 | Gov. Mitt Romney | 2,440 | +1 |
| R.4 | Rudy Giuliani | 2,160 | +2 |
| R.5 | Sen. Bill Frist | 2,060 | -2 |
| R.6 | Gov. Jeb Bush | 1,360 | +2 |
| R.7 | Secy. Condoleezza Rice | 1,160 | -2 |
| R.8 | Gov. Mike Huckabee | 1,040 | +2 |
| R.9 | Rep. Duncan Hunter | 957 | +4* |
| R.10 | Newt Gingrich | 754 | -1 |
| R.11 | Gov. George Pataki | 723 | -4 |
| R.12 | Sen. Sam Brownback | 624 | -1 |
| R.13 | Sen. Chuck Hagel | 370 | -1 |
| R.14 | Tommy Thompson | 276 | 0* |
| ............... | ............................................... | ....................... | ............... |
| D.1 | Sen. Hillary Clinton | 6,160 | 0 |
| D.2 | Sen. John Kerry | 4,290 | 0 |
| D.3 | Sen. Barack Obama | 3,490 | +2 |
| D.4 | Sen. Harry Reid | 2,160 | +3 |
| D.5 | Gov. Tom Vilsack | 1,710 | +7 |
| D.6 | Sen. John Edwards | 1,640 | -2 |
| D.7 | Sen. Joseph Biden | 1,470 | +6 |
| D.8 (tie) | Al Gore | 1,150 | -2 |
| D.8 (tie) | Gov. Mark Warner | 1,150 | -5 |
| D.10 | Howard Dean | 1,130 | -2 |
| D.11 | Gov. Bill Richardson | 1,080 | -3 |
| D.12 | Sen. Russ Feingold | 1,030 | -1 |
| D.13 | Sen. Christopher Dodd | 792 | +1 |
| D.14 | Sen. Evan Bayh | 709 | -5 |
| D.15 | Wesley Clark | 256 | 0 |
Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database.
Additions this month are Hunter and Thompson. Since the latter was only announced as a candidate yesterday, he's had far less time to break into the news; expect those two to equalize next month.
See graphs of the past Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.
5 comments:
Did George Allen's popularity rise among Republicans after his publicly racist comments were made?
I don't understand why his ranking would increase in light of this...probably some factor that I'm just not aware of. Please tell me that in this case, it's simply a correlational thing.
Like I said in the title, this month is garbage.
His popularity isn't up. A lot of the stories I'm picking up are saying things like, "George Allen, once considered a presidential candidate in 2008, no longer has a chance..."
He was a huge newsmaker because his Senate race was the last to be decided; watch for a huge dropoff over the next two months; I anticipate taking Allen off the Rankings in early 2007 (though he could be resurrected; if he is, your question is valid).
And no, he did not become more popular among conservatives after the "macaca" comment - he became so unpopular, he lost his Senate seat to a weak challenger.
has this chatter rankings ever made a correct prediction?
Well, inasmuch as it's never been done before, no. But come November 2008, ask me again!
However, the real point isn't about prediction - it's about dynamics. I want to get a quantitative measure of how news moves ahead of an election.
Personally I liked the "macaca" comment. It gave me a great new name to call Vikram!
Post a Comment