Thursday, November 16, 2006

Free-for-All 2008: Garbage

I assume, before seeing this month's rankings, that they are garbage. "Sideshow 2006" has thrown the political news machine off its normal course for the past few months and this should be worst of all. Starting next month, we should see the chatter take off, perhaps doubling within a few months.

Two politicians with little name recognition outside the Beltway announced their candidacies this week: Duncan Hunter (R-CA), Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Tommy Thompson, former Wisconsin governor and HHS secretary. Nevertheless, for the record:

The monthly prediction...
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Rank Candidate ChatterRank Change
R.1 Sen. John McCain 5,2400
R.2 Sen. George Allen 3,590+1
R.3 Gov. Mitt Romney 2,440+1
R.4 Rudy Giuliani 2,160+2
R.5 Sen. Bill Frist 2,060-2
R.6 Gov. Jeb Bush 1,360+2
R.7 Secy. Condoleezza Rice 1,160-2
R.8 Gov. Mike Huckabee 1,040+2
R.9 Rep. Duncan Hunter 957+4*
R.10 Newt Gingrich 754-1
R.11 Gov. George Pataki 723-4
R.12 Sen. Sam Brownback 624-1
R.13 Sen. Chuck Hagel 370-1
R.14 Tommy Thompson 2760*
D.1 Sen. Hillary Clinton 6,1600
D.2 Sen. John Kerry 4,2900
D.3 Sen. Barack Obama 3,490+2
D.4 Sen. Harry Reid 2,160+3
D.5 Gov. Tom Vilsack 1,710+7
D.6 Sen. John Edwards 1,640-2
D.7 Sen. Joseph Biden 1,470+6
D.8 (tie) Al Gore 1,150-2
D.8 (tie) Gov. Mark Warner 1,150-5
D.10 Howard Dean 1,130-2
D.11 Gov. Bill Richardson 1,080-3
D.12 Sen. Russ Feingold 1,030-1
D.13 Sen. Christopher Dodd 792+1
D.14 Sen. Evan Bayh 709-5
D.15 Wesley Clark 2560

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database.
Additions this month are Hunter and Thompson. Since the latter was only announced as a candidate yesterday, he's had far less time to break into the news; expect those two to equalize next month.

See graphs of the past Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.


Mike said...

Did George Allen's popularity rise among Republicans after his publicly racist comments were made?

I don't understand why his ranking would increase in light of this...probably some factor that I'm just not aware of. Please tell me that in this case, it's simply a correlational thing.

Chops said...

Like I said in the title, this month is garbage.

His popularity isn't up. A lot of the stories I'm picking up are saying things like, "George Allen, once considered a presidential candidate in 2008, no longer has a chance..."

He was a huge newsmaker because his Senate race was the last to be decided; watch for a huge dropoff over the next two months; I anticipate taking Allen off the Rankings in early 2007 (though he could be resurrected; if he is, your question is valid).

And no, he did not become more popular among conservatives after the "macaca" comment - he became so unpopular, he lost his Senate seat to a weak challenger.

Anonymous said...

has this chatter rankings ever made a correct prediction?

Chops said...

Well, inasmuch as it's never been done before, no. But come November 2008, ask me again!

However, the real point isn't about prediction - it's about dynamics. I want to get a quantitative measure of how news moves ahead of an election.

Mike said...

Personally I liked the "macaca" comment. It gave me a great new name to call Vikram!