It Really Doesn't Matter

Don't listen to the media, don't listen to the (other) bloggers, and for the sake of all that is holy don't listen to the politicians. The bottom line is, this election really doesn't matter.

Compare this election to previous midterm contests. In 2002, Bush presided over a divided legislature; the voters gave him the ability to fight the War on Terror on his own terms by swinging the Senate sharply to the right. In 1994, '96, and '98, Clinton's vision for a center-left Federal government was repudiated by the voters; forcing compromise.

In 2006, Bush is a lame duck. His domestic agenda was sold for $200 at a junkyard over a year ago. The last two years of his administration will be overshadowed by the 2008 megarace and will involve diddling at home (whether quibbling with Democrats or preparing pork seven different ways with Republicans) and trying to ready Iraqis to take power. He might add a "legacy" project (Darfur, maybe?) a la Clinton-Barak-Arafat (and we all remember how swimmingly that went).

What about Congress? They can set an agenda, right? Maybe. More likely, the majority party will be working with very small margins and great internal divisions. Additionally, leaders of both parties are thinking about their presidential chances, and don't want to get into any serious legislative battles. On Wednesday, this midterm distraction election will be set aside and every eye fixated on 2008.

2008, by contrast, is the real deal. We've grown accustomed, in the Bush Era, to razor-thin margins and the notion of "Red and Blue America". This is only because the parties have managed to carve up the Midwest with a skillsaw. In a typical presidential election, the victor is swept in by mob proportions in the electoral college.

Not only will the presidency be wide, wide open, both houses of Congress will be almost tied, leaving Washington totally up for grabs. Bring on 2008!

(but don't forget to vote tomorrow!)