Free-For-All 2008: The Leaders Emerge

This month's chatter shows the huge increases in volume that will continue through this time next year. Who emerges victorious then is still very much up for debate, but the chatter indicates that not too many candidates are being seriously considered.

This is apparent not so much from the top end - plenty of apparent frontrunners have stumbled long before a vote is cast - but at the low end. The scale of this election (almost unprecedented) means that it will be enormously difficult for a dark horse to emerge from either party. That is especially true on the Democratic side, though events in Iraq and elsewhere could conceivably cause seismic shifts in Republican support, and the lack of an obvious leader among social conservatives means that one of the pack could emerge and overtake McCain, Giuliani, and Romney. But it is not likely.

Also, the Democratic side continues to garner more chatter: the announcement of Obama's candidacy this month has fueled his rise, overtaking Hillary in a media-coverage dogfight by one-tenth of one percent. Still, instead of drowning out the rest of the field, these two brought the rest up with them, so that even the inexplicably competitive John Edwards outperformed every Republican. Charitably, this is because the Democratic primaries have gotten a lot of attention this month. More darkly, this is evidence of a media bias that has caused coverage of the parties to move steadily away from parity since the cycle began (graph).

What's interesting (and gratifying) is that the current chatter lines up closely with scientific polling results from the past week or two. The helpful website Polling Report shows that in the latest USA Today/Gallup Poll, the Democrats who garnered support were Clinton, Obama, Gore, Edwards, Richardson, and three with 1% or less. On the GOP side, Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich, Romney, Brownback, and seven with 2% or less.

However, a FOX News/OD poll offers deeper insight, showing that while Gingrich (for instance) has a few hard-core supporters, an overwhelming 64% say they would never vote for him. Among those considered, Obama and Giuliani have the lowest negative ratings. In addition, Giuliani beats Hillary head-to-head 49 to 40. More interestingly, when Nader is thrown into the mix, he saps Giuliani's support, not Hillary's, though the 3% drop may be within the margin of error.

On to the rankings!

The monthly prediction...
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.1	Sen. John McCain	7,198	0
R.2	Rudy Giuliani	4,496	+2
R.3	Gov. Mitt Romney	4,088	-1
R.4	Sen. Sam Brownback	2,353	+2
R.5	Sen. Chuck Hagel	2,326	0
R.6	Gov. Mike Huckabee	1,071	+4
R.7	Secy. Condoleezza Rice	994	-4
R.8	Newt Gingrich	936	+1
R.9	Rep. Tom Tancredo	680	+3
R.10	Rep. Duncan Hunter	673	0
R.11	Gov. Jeb Bush	361	+4
R.12	Sen. George Allen	301	-5
R.13	Gov. George Pataki	289	-5
R.14	Tommy Thompson	244	-1
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Barack Obama	12,520	+1
D.2	Sen. Hillary Clinton	12,502	-1
D.3	Sen. John Edwards	7,280	+1
D.4	Sen. John Kerry	4,414	-1
D.5* (new)	Rep. Dennis Kucinich	3,232	+10
D.6	Gov. Bill Richardson	3,106	+3
D.7	Sen. Christopher Dodd	3,100	0
D.8	Sen. Joseph Biden	2,612	-3
D.9	Gov. Tom Vilsack	2,059	-1
D.10	Al Gore	1,947	0
D.11	Sen. Harry Reid	1,816	-5
D.12	Howard Dean	1,025	-1
D.13	Sen. Russ Feingold	544	+1
D.14	Wesley Clark	466	-1
D.15	Gov. Mark Warner	306	0

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month tested but not qualifying are Ron Paul (440), Al Sharpton (670), Jim Gilmore (633) and Mike Gravel (566). To qualify, a candidate should separate himself from the just-hanging-on types of his own party. Purged from the rolls this month are non-contenders Evan Bayh (117) and Bill Frist (128). Other non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Warner and Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Reid and Dean).

See last month's graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.