If I Were A Betting Man

I would not put any money down at Long Bets. You can't win anything, and - win or lose - you have to put your money down up front. If you win, your benefit is not money - it's pride... if you're still alive.

That said, I'm glad someone had the inspiration to create Long Bets. While it doesn't rise to the high stakes dignity of those it has imitated - who made real bets on the future of the world by trading long commodity futures - it provides a lasting record of accountable predictions and thinking about humanity's future.

Since it costs $50 just to make a prediction, the Long Bets website is not overloaded with predictions. And since only 50/50 odds are allowed, few of the predictions become bets. Many of the predictors and notables are influential people - CEO's, authors, publishers, innovators. Some of the predictions are fairly mundane:

By 2010, the use of dial-up modems will represent less than 5 percent of all Internet access (represented as a percentage of all households) in the United States. As part of this prediction, I expect that at that time, dial-up service will cost significantly more than the slowest alternative, which will be substantially faster than dial-up.

02006 - 02010 (4 years)

Glenn I. Fleishman

Some are wildly weird:

By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.

02002 - 02150 (148 years)

Alex K. Rubin

And only a handful are already settled, though it seems Long Bets has some work to do on timely and clear adjudication:

The US men's soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series.

02002 - ? (? years)

$1,000 each

Mike Elliot v. Ted Danson