Steady On

The players in the New Palestine and their games:

Hamas. They did the right thing by asking Fatah to join the governing coalition and by not demanding that President Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) step down. If things go their way, he'll be their liaison with Israel and the West, and can be the fall guy if public opinion rejects some concession, involuntary or otherwise. Now they should focus on a smooth transition and prove that they can grow into a functional member of the New Palestine.

Fatah. They did the right thing by rejecting Hamas's offer. They need to stay low and wait for the challenger to make a mistake before striking back. For the long term, they need to rein in the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and use their powerlessness as an opportunity to reform and bring some much-needed order to an organization which has become an incestuous mess.

Olmert. If you don't know, Israel's Acting Prime Minister is Ehud Olmert, like PM Ariel Sharon a founder of the new Kadima party. He has polled well recently, and needs to show Israelis that Kadima really does have new ideas and won't implode or morph back into Likudish reactionism because of the Hamas victory.

The West. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is meeting with President Abbas tomorrow. This should be the last time for a long time. Not only does the West need to be firm in its resolve not to treat with Hamas, but they need to eschew go-betweens. This isn't to say that informal or back channels shouldn't remain open - they always should - but the West has no reason and no business to try to pick and choose among Palestinian politicians. Respecting Palestine's choice of leadership means dealing only with their elected leaders, or not dealing at all. Going to old leadership in an attempt to get something done will only undermine the legitimacy of Palestinian moderates, but will never produce anything of value. I can't stress this point enough: don't try to subvert the election results, simply respond to them with firmness and an open mind. If Hamas stops the violence and preserves the democracy that empowered them, then let's talk. Until then, we can wait.