Sunday, June 17, 2007

Divorced, or Just Separated?

The brief civil war in Palestine is reaching its happy conclusion today as Fatah forces consolidate power in the West Bank.
Hundreds of Fatah gunmen stormed Hamas-controlled institutions across the West Bank, seeking revenge for the Islamic group's takeover of the Gaza Strip...

The Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and the Fatah-controlled West Bank have effectively become separate political entities, endangering the Palestinian dream of forming an independent state in the two territories.
A divided Palestine is not a viable option in the long run: too many Palestinians and Arabs have demanded a state for too long to now admit they can't even keep the thing in one piece. Thus, no peace proposal that addresses only the West Bank will be able to gain widespread support.

Nonetheless, there remains a simple way to move forward. Let Palestine become a confederation with a notional president (such as Abbas), but effectively local control. Thus, Israel and America can channel aid and tax revenues not to Palestine as such (which is politically thorny) but to the state (wilaya) of West Bank. This is not an unknown notion in the Arab world: the UAE is a very successful confederation, and a federal system may ultimately solve Iraq.

The conflict in Palestine has always been driven by 'facts on the ground' - not political statements. Even if a newly organized Confederation of Palestine is a fig leaf, that's all that is needed to start recreating some positive facts on the ground that may lead to a lasting peace for the next generation if not for this one.

No comments: