Monday, December 10, 2007

Quality Opponents

Winning in the NFL is hard, unless you're visiting South Florida. But not all playoff-bound teams can necessarily compete once they arrive. Looking at the above-.500 teams in the NFL, here's where they rank against one another.
TeamRecordChancesWinsRemaining
Patriots13-0771
Cowboys12-1650
Colts11-2641
Packers11-2540
Steelers9-4541
Jaguars9-4741
Seahawks9-4310
Giants9-4402
Chargers8-5620
Browns8-5411
Buccaneers8-5410
Vikings7-6520
Titans7-6511
Bills7-6502

Strongest schedule? Only the Patriots and Jaguars will play (likely) above-.500 opponents 8 times. This is really remarkable with the Pats, since this type of metric always underestimates the quality of the opponents of good teams and overestimates the quality of opponents of bad teams. Given that the Pats have faced 3 of the top 4 other teams, it's hard to argue that any team had a tougher season than the Pats.

Weakest schedule? Only the Seahawks will slide through their season facing good teams just 3 times (Miami, by comparison will play 7 above-.500 teams).

Flimsiest record? The Giants have 9 wins against weak opponents and 4 losses against strong opponents. The Bills also haven't beaten a good team - and will need to beat at least one of the two more they face to get into the playoffs.

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