This is crunch time. Voters who haven't given levers and chads a thought since November, 2004, will tune in for the first time during the next four weeks. Can the candidates generate any more attention than they already have? The evidence I'm gathering indicates "no" - particularly for the leaders.
From the Chatter Rankings' inception in May 2005, total chatter hovered between 10 and 20,000 per month until November 2006. In December 2006, however, it spiked to 70,000. Apart from a lull over the summer, chatter has remained of that order of magnitude, often lower. Here are the numbers for Hillary and Rudy over the last year:
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| Clinton | 6,047 | 12,502 | 6,858 | 6,993 | 7,012 | 7,526 | 7,053 | 6,536 | 6,843 | 7,931 | 9,439 | 9,780 |
| Giuliani | 3,645 | 4,496 | 5,300 | 4,729 | 4,738 | 4,455 | 4,362 | 3,063 | 3,199 | 5,414 | 5,460 | 5,830 |
Basically, the news reached saturation point a year ago, and candidates haven't gotten more (online, print) exposure than they did before. Perhaps there is more TV-time than a year ago - but wouldn't you have assumed the same about print media as well?
This is bad news for the Clintons and Giulianis of the race: they had high early name recognition and exposure, but they haven't been able to extend that lead at all. Instead, other candidates are getting a share of the news pie. Look at Mike Huckabee's numbers over the same period. He had a few big months, but mostly was garnering a fraction of the attention of the big candidates. Now, all of a sudden, "Huckaboom" is on everyone's tongue.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| Huckabee | 406 | 1,071 | 902 | 758 | 1,327 | 1,119 | 277 | 398 | 610 | 582 | 1,283 | 3,685 |
Perhaps the "Long Campaign" has its limits. And perhaps we, the news-reading electorate, have a limit as to how much political flak we'll read.
This month's data:
| Rank | Candidate | Chatter | Rank Change |
| R.1 | Rudy Giuliani | 5,830 | 0 |
| R.2 | Gov. Mitt Romney | 5,051 | +1 |
| R.3 | Sen. John McCain | 4,052 | -1 |
| R.4 | Gov. Mike Huckabee | 3,685 | +2 |
| R.5 | Fred Thompson | 3,213 | -1 |
| R.6 | Rep. Ron Paul | 2,182 | -1 |
| R.7 | Rep. Duncan Hunter | 321 | +2 |
| R.8 | Rep. Tom Tancredo | 276 | 0 |
| R.9 | Sen. Sam Brownback | 153 | -2 |
| R.10 | Newt Gingrich | 138 | 0 |
| ............... | ............................................... | ....................... | ............... |
| D.1 | Sen. Hillary Clinton | 9,780 | 0 |
| D.2 | Sen. John Edwards | 6,679 | +1 |
| D.3 | Sen. Barack Obama | 6,404 | -1 |
| D.4 | Sen. Christopher Dodd | 1,613 | 0 |
| D.5 | Gov. Bill Richardson | 1,392 | +1 |
| D.6 | Sen. Joseph Biden | 850 | -1 |
| D.7 | Al Gore | 813 | 0 |
| D.8 | Rep. Dennis Kucinich | 633 | 0 |
| D.9 | Mike Gravel | 303 | 0 |
Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. Tested but not qualifying is Alan Keyes (84).
See recent graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.
The monthly prediction...
Dec '07: Clinton & Richardson over Giuliani & Thompson
Nov '07: Clinton & Richardson over Giuliani & Thompson
Oct '07: Clinton & Richardson over Giuliani & Thompson
Sep '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Richardson
Aug '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jul '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jun '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
May '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
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