The early primary may magnify or minimize the importance of New Hampshire (Iowa, I think, has already jumped the shark: caucuses are too finicky and the state is too small and homogeneous). Does a New Hampshire victory aid a candidate going into Super Duper Tuesday, or will it be too little, too late?
While the results remain (obviously) to be seen, I think the new calendar gives Rudy Giuliani a chance he never would have had otherwise. Not only does he have the money and name recognition to maintain an advantage in big states, he also benefits from earlier primaries by liberal states. Consider this scenario:
- 1/22: NH - Romney
- 1/29: FL - Romney
- 2/2: SC - Thompson
- 2/5: NY, NJ, CA, CT - Giuliani
That's the technical side. Why would Giuliani's candidacy take off, though? He's obviously not a middle-of-the-party Republican. But plenty of primary voters might be so frightened by the specter of Hillary that they vote for the obvious "winnability" superstar. And he is: Giuliani would be a very, very difficult man to beat in a general election. Thus, oddly enough, a weakened, chastened Republican party might in fact be best positioned to win in 2008.
(On veeps: Giuliani needs a running mate from the South, preferably a Christian. I'm putting Thompson in, but it might as well be Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, or - even more likely - an unknown independent who won't steal Rudy's spotlight).
The monthly prediction...
Jul '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jun '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
May '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
| Rank | Candidate | Chatter | Rank Change |
| R.1 | Sen. John McCain | 5,004 | 0 |
| R.2 | Rudy Giuliani | 4,362 | 0 |
| R.3 | Gov. Mitt Romney | 3,274 | 0 |
| R.4 | Fred Thompson | 2,107 | 0 |
| R.5 | Sen. Chuck Hagel | 900 | +9 |
| R.6 | Secy. Condoleezza Rice | 669 | +3 |
| R.7 | Ron Paul | 563 | 0 |
| R.8 | Sen. Sam Brownback | 543 | 0 |
| R.9 | Gov. Mike Huckabee | 277 | -3 |
| R.10 | Rep. Duncan Hunter | 220 | +1 |
| R.11 | Newt Gingrich | 216 | -6 |
| R.12 | Jim Gilmore | 167 | 0 |
| R.13 | Rep. Tom Tancredo | 144 | -3 |
| R.14 | Tommy Thompson | 140 | -1 |
| ............... | ............................................... | ....................... | ............... |
| D.1 | Sen. Hillary Clinton | 7,053 | 0 |
| D.2 | Sen. Barack Obama | 4,578 | 0 |
| D.3 | Sen. John Edwards | 3,724 | 0 |
| D.4 | Al Gore | 1,910 | +3 |
| D.5 | Gov. Bill Richardson | 1,295 | +1 |
| D.6 | Sen. John Kerry | 936 | +2 |
| D.7 | Sen. Joseph Biden | 914 | -2 |
| D.8 | Sen. Christopher Dodd | 647 | -4 |
| D.9 (tie) | Rep. Dennis Kucinich | 445 | 0 |
| D.9 (tie) | Howard Dean | 445 | +3 |
| D.11 | Sen. Russ Feingold | 285 | -1 |
| D.12 | Mike Gravel | 220 | -1 |
| D.13 | Gov. Mark Warner | 195 | 0 |
| D.14 | Wesley Clark | 40 | 0 |
Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month tested but not qualifying is Jeb Bush (72). Non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Dean).
See recent graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from June, May, April, March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.
1 comment:
The candidate that has the most well developed local political organization and local ties stands to benefit most from early primaries. Without having to deal with momentum, the candidate who can get the most people to knock on doors or tell their neighbors to vote for him will come out on top. I think this favors Romney as Thompson has had less time to build support due to his later entry and Giuliani is unlikely to get support from diehard republican political junkies because he's too liberal for you tastes. "Electibility" may get people to vote for you in the booth but it's much less likely to get them to actively campaign for you.
ali baba
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