Free-for-All 2008: Social Conservatives, Security Liberals

The metatext on the Republican primary battle now is "Can Rudy win?". After his clear pro-abortion statements this month, he has distinguished himself from a field that otherwise (except Jim Gilmore) clamors to denounce the practice. That's not necessarily the distinction Mr. Giuliani was hoping for, and he will have to work to get back on message in order to stay competitive.

Some writers are taking it too far: Gloria Berger thinks Giuliani's candidacy could split the G.O.P. That's the stuff of Democratic daydreams: the reality is that abortion is not a big part of governing, and whoever the nominee is will be overwhelmingly more conservative than the Democratic nominee, and that disparity will keep the coalition behind the party intact.

Giuliani's biggest problem, rather, is the topic of the Republican primary. With an Elephant incumbent using the world as his china closet, the G.O.P.'s usual winning national security message is little use to them. Tancredo and a few others are using immigration as a wedge to move to the right of George W. Bush on a security issue, but for the most part, security and international affairs are barren fields for Republican candidates right now.

[Equal time: for Democratic candidates, security and international affairs are a gold mine. That isn't to say that the Donkeys have overtaken the Elephants as a group in getting the public to trust them on security, but an individual candidate could easily distinguish himself with a good, clear security policy. Of course, the Democrats are considered weak on security for a reason: most are either wafflers (Clinton), idealists (Kucinich), loonies (Biden), or utterly untested (Obama and Edwards). Wesley Clark is apparently sitting this race out despite the fact that most Americans would trust him far more than the gaggle of far-left senators.]

Will Giuliani go away? I don't think so. But at this point, his only hope is to capture all the pro-abortion vote and a good chunk of the ambivalent vote. Even then, he still needs a clear split among the middle of the G.O.P. to win pluralities in some non-northeastern states. But his presence throughout the primary will help the G.O.P. He'll pull the field toward the center (nobody else need worry about being the least pro-life), add class and star power to debates, and push the conversation toward Republican strong points and away from narrow issues like immigration.

In closing, if Giuliani goes down, someone must come up. Romney hasn't gotten traction. Thompson's life as a D.C. womanizer will come back to haunt him if he enters. The fringe candidates are too fringy. That leaves Senator McCain. While Global Review continues to support Mitt Romney, our money is on McCain for the nomination.

The monthly prediction...
May '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.1	Sen. John McCain	4,803	0
R.2	Rudy Giuliani	4,738	0
R.3	Gov. Mitt Romney	3,758	0
R.4	Fred Thompson	1,547	+2
R.5	Gov. Mike Huckabee	1,327	+2
R.6	Newt Gingrich	1,307	-1
R.7	Sen. Sam Brownback	1,226	+1
R.8	Ron Paul	1,131	+4
R.9	Rep. Duncan Hunter	1,028	+2
R.10	Tommy Thompson	974	0
R.11	Secy. Condoleezza Rice	972	-2
R.12	Rep. Tom Tancredo	923	+1
R.13 *(new)	Jim Gilmore	862	+3
R.14	Sen. Chuck Hagel	855	-10
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Hillary Clinton	7,012	0
D.2	Sen. Barack Obama	5,464	0
D.3	Sen. John Edwards	4,617	0
D.4	Sen. Christopher Dodd	3,064	+3
D.5	Sen. Joseph Biden	2,432	+1
D.6	Gov. Bill Richardson	2,228	+2
D.7	Sen. Russ Feingold	1,529	+3
D.8	Sen. John Kerry	1,485	-4
D.9	Al Gore	1,412	-4
D.10	Howard Dean	1,364	+1
D.11	Rep. Dennis Kucinich	1,279	-2
D.12 *(new)	Mike Gravel	802	+2
D.13	Gov. Mark Warner	446	0
D.14	Wesley Clark	98	0

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month tested but not qualifying is Al Sharpton (547). Purged this month were Jeb Bush (81), George Pataki (40), and Tom Vilsack (13). Non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Dean).

See recent graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from April, March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.