The Republican pre-primary, on the other hand, is the wild, wild west. Most of the recent excitement surrounds two non-candidates: Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich. The best fundraiser - Mitt Romney - rarely breaks the top three in polls. The best poller - Giuliani - cannot raise money, and has positions that put him far out of line with most primary voters. The most chattered about - John McCain - keeps seeing his name used in sentences with words like "beleaguered" and "embattled".
The G.O.P. election will be great for science. Does money win elections? Or is it polling popularity? Or connections with the party's establishment? Hollywood voice and looks? A gubernatorial record? Or a lot of news chatter? We'll find out.
The monthly prediction...
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
| Rank | Candidate | Chatter | Rank Change |
| R.1 | Sen. John McCain | 5,663 | 0 |
| R.2 | Rudy Giuliani | 4,729 | 0 |
| R.3 | Gov. Mitt Romney | 3,158 | 0 |
| R.4 | Sen. Chuck Hagel | 2,233 | +4 |
| R.5 | Newt Gingrich | 1,787 | -1 |
| R.6* (new) | Fred Thompson | 1,119 | +10 |
| R.7 | Gov. Mike Huckabee | 758 | 0 |
| R.8 | Sen. Sam Brownback | 708 | -2 |
| R.9 | Secy. Condoleezza Rice | 616 | -4 |
| R.10 | Tommy Thompson | 596 | +1 |
| R.11 | Rep. Duncan Hunter | 570 | -2 |
| R.12* (new) | Ron Paul | 430 | -2 |
| R.13 | Rep. Tom Tancredo | 422 | 0 |
| R.14 | Gov. Jeb Bush | 228 | -4 |
| R.15 | Gov. George Pataki | 131 | -1 |
| ............... | ............................................... | ....................... | ............... |
| D.1 | Sen. Hillary Clinton | 6,993 | +1 |
| D.2 | Sen. Barack Obama | 5,220 | -1 |
| D.3 | Sen. John Edwards | 5,149 | 0 |
| D.4 | Sen. John Kerry | 2,701 | +2 |
| D.5 | Al Gore | 2,605 | -1 |
| D.6 | Sen. Joseph Biden | 1,667 | +1 |
| D.7 | Sen. Christopher Dodd | 1,661 | +1 |
| D.8 | Gov. Bill Richardson | 1,624 | -3 |
| D.9 | Rep. Dennis Kucinich | 1,299 | +2 |
| D.10 | Sen. Russ Feingold | 911 | +2 |
| D.11 | Howard Dean | 827 | -1 |
| D.12 | Gov. Tom Vilsack | 505 | -3 |
| D.13 | Gov. Mark Warner | 437 | -1 |
| D.14 | Wesley Clark | 34 | -1 |
Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month tested but not qualifying are Al Sharpton (114), Jim Gilmore (77) and Mike Gravel (126). Non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Dean). This month, I purged George Allen, who has the same chance of becoming president as a macaca.
See brand new graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.
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