Monday, April 16, 2007

Free-For-All 2008: Republicans Falling Apart, Democrats Coming Together

2007: a tale of two parties. The Democrats have two strong candidates and inexplicable hanger-on who retain the top three spots, the big money, and the good poll standings.

The Republican pre-primary, on the other hand, is the wild, wild west. Most of the recent excitement surrounds two non-candidates: Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich. The best fundraiser - Mitt Romney - rarely breaks the top three in polls. The best poller - Giuliani - cannot raise money, and has positions that put him far out of line with most primary voters. The most chattered about - John McCain - keeps seeing his name used in sentences with words like "beleaguered" and "embattled".

The G.O.P. election will be great for science. Does money win elections? Or is it polling popularity? Or connections with the party's establishment? Hollywood voice and looks? A gubernatorial record? Or a lot of news chatter? We'll find out.

The monthly prediction...
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Rank Candidate ChatterRank Change
R.1 Sen. John McCain 5,6630
R.2 Rudy Giuliani 4,7290
R.3 Gov. Mitt Romney 3,1580
R.4 Sen. Chuck Hagel 2,233+4
R.5 Newt Gingrich 1,787-1
R.6* (new) Fred Thompson 1,119+10
R.7 Gov. Mike Huckabee 7580
R.8 Sen. Sam Brownback 708-2
R.9 Secy. Condoleezza Rice 616-4
R.10 Tommy Thompson 596+1
R.11 Rep. Duncan Hunter 570-2
R.12* (new) Ron Paul 430-2
R.13 Rep. Tom Tancredo 4220
R.14 Gov. Jeb Bush 228-4
R.15 Gov. George Pataki 131-1
....................................................................................................
D.1 Sen. Hillary Clinton 6,993+1
D.2 Sen. Barack Obama 5,220-1
D.3 Sen. John Edwards 5,1490
D.4 Sen. John Kerry 2,701+2
D.5 Al Gore 2,605-1
D.6 Sen. Joseph Biden 1,667+1
D.7 Sen. Christopher Dodd 1,661+1
D.8 Gov. Bill Richardson 1,624-3
D.9 Rep. Dennis Kucinich 1,299+2
D.10 Sen. Russ Feingold 911+2
D.11 Howard Dean 827-1
D.12 Gov. Tom Vilsack 505-3
D.13 Gov. Mark Warner 437-1
D.14 Wesley Clark 34-1

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month tested but not qualifying are Al Sharpton (114), Jim Gilmore (77) and Mike Gravel (126). Non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Dean). This month, I purged George Allen, who has the same chance of becoming president as a macaca.

See brand new graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.

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