Principally, my goal in doing this is to create raw data on an important aspect of the American democracy. This election offers a very unique opportunity: with no sitting president or vice president, none of the candidates has a prohibitively large news-making advantage.
The secondary goal is to investigate whether news coverage influences the result of the primary elections. The rankings have no pretense of offering a prediction of the result. However, regression analysis after the results of the first primaries might show that news coverage yielded greater results - controlling for the state's political makeup, early poll averages, and advertising dollars spent. If I can successfully separate the effect of news coverage (which is usually favorable) from the many other factors that drive primary popularity, I will have a valid contribution to our understanding of presidential campaigns.
This month, both campaigns have begun to heat up after a quiet summer. On the Democratic side, Hillary's numbers have climbed toward the crucial 50% mark, while Obama has slid away. Barring a major comeback, she has her nomination locked up.
The Republican race remains far more interesting. The most influential spot might be SNL's Fred Thompson, which has contributed to Thompson's underwhelming entry. Meanwhile, Giuliani and Romney have been exchanging salvos and McCain has the look of a man desperately trying to start a lawnmower.
I switch back to a Hillary victory in the (totally unscientific) monthly prediction. Why, when Giuliani is clearly the more centrist of the two? Because Ron Paul raised $5.2 million in the third quarter and has a growing cadre of supporters. He'd be able to run the best Third Party campaign in years against the two New York hawks, and is a credible libertarian with a respectable record in Congress. Nothing would scuttle a Giuliani run faster than a Third Party bid by a serious (and well-funded) conservative.
| Rank | Candidate | Chatter | Rank Change |
| R.1 | Rudy Giuliani | 5,414 | +2 |
| R.2 | Gov. Mitt Romney | 3,629 | 0 |
| R.3 | Sen. John McCain | 3,577 | -2 |
| R.4 | Fred Thompson | 3,122 | 0 |
| R.5 | Rep. Ron Paul | 1,469 | +1 |
| R.6 | Gov. Mike Huckabee | 582 | +1 |
| R.7 | Sen. Chuck Hagel | 476 | -2 |
| R.8 | Newt Gingrich | 293 | +1 |
| R.9 | Sen. Sam Brownback | 285 | +1 |
| R.10 | Secy. Condoleezza Rice | 272 | -2 |
| R.11 | Rep. Duncan Hunter | 216 | 0 |
| R.12 | Rep. Tom Tancredo | 182 | 0 |
| ............... | ............................................... | ....................... | ............... |
| D.1 | Sen. Hillary Clinton | 7,931 | 0 |
| D.2 | Sen. Barack Obama | 4,907 | 0 |
| D.3 | Sen. John Edwards | 4,396 | 0 |
| D.4 | Al Gore | 3,054 | +4 |
| D.5 | Sen. John Kerry | 1,386 | +1 |
| D.6 | Gov. Bill Richardson | 1,263 | +1 |
| D.7 | Sen. Joseph Biden | 1,018 | -3 |
| D.8 | Howard Dean | 574 | +2 |
| D.9 | Sen. Christopher Dodd | 560 | -4 |
| D.10 | Rep. Dennis Kucinich | 325 | +1 |
| D.11 | Mike Gravel | 151 | +1 |
Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. Purged this month is withdrawee Russ Feingold (86). Tested but not qualifying is Alan Keyes (67). Non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Dean).
See recent graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.
The monthly prediction...
Oct '07: Clinton & Richardson over Giuliani & Thompson
Sep '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Richardson
Aug '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jul '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jun '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
May '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
3 comments:
Ron Paul would take votes from the left, more than the right. Unless Iraq gets much worse or much much much better in the next year, Clinton isn't going to run on a platform of withdraw, neither is Giuliani.
Ron Paul will, and while he will get the ultralibertarian vote, he may very easily be the most appealing candidate to the netroots crowd, which is much bigger than the ultralibertarian vote.
That's true, but I think that those votes will come largely from safe Hillary states. In really contested states - the Midwest, Florida, the Southwest - Giuliani is already somewhat distrusted, and staunch conservatives who believe the race is lost will be eager to find a really conservative alternative to the two New Yorkers.
I think Chops' monthly predictions are based solely on generating longer names in each prediction, therefore creating a goblet shape in the web browser.
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