Free-for-All 2008: Primary Games

With more and more states holding early primaries, pundits are baffled as to how the primaries will play out.

Does the overload on February 5th give early states more power or less? Will any candidate have the time needed to dispatch some of his or her opponents before the 5th? And if not, will the frontloading paradoxically lead to a protracted battle between two candidates in one (or both) of the parties.

While I can no better predict the individual outcomes, I am aiming to apply some basic methods of estimation, which would help us understand what really motivates primary voters. Do their own preferences formed over the Long Campaign matter most? Or are they swayed by a candidate's recent successes and their own desire to pick a winner?

Thus, I posit a model of primary vote share determination where candidate i's vote share in state s (v_i,s) is a linear function of pre-primary polling data (p_i,s), results of previous states' (1,2...s-1) primaries weighted by size and date (f(v_i,1,...,v_i,s-1)), and delegates already locked up by the candidatate (del_i).

v_i,s = alpha1*p_i,s + alpha2*f(v_i,1,...,v_i,s-1) + alpha3*del_i

With the data from previous elections available, a model such as this one could be estimated to yield the coefficients (alpha1, alpha2, and alpha3); then, with polling data and election dates from this cycle, the entire primary season could be simulated. (If any readers have access to that type of data, I would be very grateful for help on this project).

The latest media chatter is almost constant from October. The big gainers are Hillary and Huckabee. The Republican side continues to be a dogfight between the Big Three, with Fred Thompson slipping and out of contention in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.1	Rudy Giuliani	5,460	0
R.2	Sen. John McCain	3,469	+1
R.3	Gov. Mitt Romney	3,402	-1
R.4	Fred Thompson	2,919	0
R.5	Rep. Ron Paul	1,611	0
R.6	Gov. Mike Huckabee	1,283	+1
R.7	Sen. Sam Brownback	285	+2
R.8	Rep. Tom Tancredo	276	+4
R.9	Rep. Duncan Hunter	212	+2
R.10	Newt Gingrich	98	-2
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Hillary Clinton	9,439	0
D.2	Sen. Barack Obama	5,780	0
D.3	Sen. John Edwards	5,515	0
D.4	Sen. Christopher Dodd	1,145	+5
D.5	Sen. Joseph Biden	940	+2
D.6	Gov. Bill Richardson	937	0
D.7	Al Gore	763	-3
D.8	Rep. Dennis Kucinich	548	+2
D.9	Mike Gravel	231	+2

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. Tested but not qualifying is Alan Keyes (28). Purged this month are almost all non-contenders; the only ones who remain are distinct vice-presidential possibilities. The purged are Condi Rice (who said she will not be VP), Chuck Hagel, Howard Dean, and John Kerry. Al Gore remains.

See recent graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.

The monthly prediction...

Nov '07: Clinton & Richardson over Giuliani & Thompson
Oct '07: Clinton & Richardson over Giuliani & Thompson
Sep '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Richardson
Aug '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jul '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jun '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
May '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice