Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Casseling to protect the King

The Patriots are holding onto Matt Cassel for the pricetag of $14 million in order to hedge against Tom Brady's recovery. But they must have a "Plan A" that doesn't involve handing $14 million to a backup if Brady stays healthy, right? Here's my theory:

If Brady is delayed in returning, Cassel starts the season. Even if Brady looks fine, keeping Cassel around for a few games isn't a terrible idea. But then Brady looks strong and is chucking two or three TD's a game by late September when Matt Ryan/David Garrard/Eli Manning/Joe Flacco/Ben Roethlisberger/etc. goes down with a season-ending injury. (Alternate ending: rookie QB has 4 TD's and 12 INT's after four games). Then the Patriots trade the idle Cassel to a team whose season is in the balance for a few key pieces elsewhere on their team, perhaps also dictated by injury. With that amount of salary moving, and with Cassel's stats this year, his trade could land the Pats a top-notch linebacker or a few proven roleplayers, depending on their need.

Does that sound plausible? In Belichick we trust.


Mike said...

Yeah, you have to figure there's some kind of expected value calculation going on.

Mr. Dough said...

Clever title Chops. One of these days I have to figure out this chess thing. Maybe if I ever get time to use Facebook again....