Introducing: Donny D & Vik Hits the Fan

Two of my colleagues at the U of R just got blogs. Check 'em out: Donny D & Vik Hits the Fan.

Introducing: Cory

My friend Cory, a hard-working, sacrificing, and self-depracating Peace Corps volunteer (and, above all, a good friend), has a witty little blog over at 32' North, 5' West. Check out some of my photos that he's posted over the last two months and read news from Morocco, where I taught English over the summer.

2006 Red Sox, R.I.P.

I have only one thing to say about the Red Sox completing their August collapse this week: GO PATRIOTS!

Free-for-All-2008: Crossing A Line

George Allen is gone. His chatter comes in at 421, and the search George Allen macaca yields 480 hits. More importantly, WUSA reports that Allen may lose his Senate bid, his once-commanding lead having evaporated. Mr. Allen was never such a frontrunner for the nomination that "to macaca" (vb., transitive/reflexive) will enter the political lexicon as it might have if he had waited until December 2007 to make the comment. As it is, the inane career of an inane politician has been capped, if not ended.

Some might say this is harsh of us Americans to so punish someone for one comment made off-the-cuff. It's not rare - remember Trent Lott's praise of Strom Thurmond a few years ago? But I don't think it's an unfair punishment. Politicians normally work over every word, and when a moment of candor reveals not humor, not perspicuity, not love of country, but provincialism and nativism, how can we not act on what little of the true George we know?

Over the summer, my perspective on the next two elections has crossed a line. Whereas in May I thought a Democratic revolution in Congress unlikely, I know consider it as likely as not. Foiling the British terror plot certainly helped Republicans, reminding us that the war on terror has some true enemies and some true successes, but the effect is likely to wear off by November. What is likely is a spate of bad news from Iraq in late October (the terrorists aren't stupid), and that may be enough to flip the House.

If that occurs, I think voter anger will be satiated, and the Democrats will show that they can't stop earmarking, fix the war, or do any better on a host of issues. Bush will wane in importance after November, as lame ducks always do, and the campaign will become more about Capitol Hill. With Democrats in charge, the flaccidness of 2000's Washington could come (somewhat accidentally) to rest on the shoulders of Hillary Clinton and the other legislative-branch Democrats seeking the nation's highest office. People will be sick of the mainstream of both parties, and with the GOP far stronger among non-insider candidates, this sequence of events could swing things to a reform-minded, centrist Republican.

In addition, without a consensus nominee (such as Allen) on the center-right of the GOP, the center-left of the party could coalesce around McCain in the primary while the right splinters among Romney, Hagel, Brownback, Frist, and Huckabee. And McCain is one of the few candidates who could run away with a landslide in 2008.

The searches were performed yesterday, August 21st, 2006.

The monthly prediction...
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice


Check out graphs of the Chatter Rankings from May 2005 through April 2006

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.1	Sen. John McCain	1,170	0
R.2	Gov. Mitt Romney	1,040	+1
R.3	Sen. Bill Frist	886	-1
R.4	Gov. George Pataki	506	+5
R.5	Rudy Giuliani	444	+1
R.6	Sen. George Allen	421	-1
R.7 (tie)	Gov. Mike Huckabee	240	+3
R.7 (tie)	Newt Gingrich	240	+5
R.9	Secy. Condoleezza Rice	192	-1
R.10	Sen. Chuck Hagel	166	-3
R.11	Gov. Jeb Bush	151	0
R.12	Sen. Sam Brownback	70	-7
R.13	Rep. Tom Tancredo	31	0
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Hillary Clinton	2,230	0
D.2	Sen. John Kerry	1,670	0
D.3	Al Gore	750	+2
D.4	Sen. John Edwards	740	+2
D.5	Sen. Harry Reid	718	-1
D.6	Howard Dean	593	+3
D.7	Gov. Tom Vilsack	551	+4
D.8	Gov. Bill Richardson	419	+5
D.9	Sen. Evan Bayh	385	-2
D.10	Sen. Russ Feingold	297	-7
D.11	Gov. Mark Warner	286	-3
D.12	Sen. Joseph Biden	263	-2
D.13	Sen. Barack Obama	232	-1
D.14	Wesley Clark	127	0
D.15	Tom Daschle	42	0

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. Tom Tancredo and Tom Daschle may be purged if they continue to perform at abysmal levels.

See the Chatter Rankings from July, June, May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.

Free-for-All-2008: Midsummer

All of this reflects things as of July 19th, 2006. The searches were done by me in North Africa.

Many candidates showed large increases in raw chatter, and very few (only 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans) experienced declines, and of these only Jeb Bush declined sharply.

The monthly prediction...
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice


Check out graphs of the Chatter Rankings from May 2005 through April 2006

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.1	Sen. John McCain	1,870	0
R.2	Sen. Bill Frist	1,610	0
R.3	Gov. Mitt Romney	1,080	+5
R.4	Sen. George Allen	1,030	0
R.5	Sen. Sam Brownback	691	+5
R.6	Rudy Giuliani	679	-1
R.7	Sen. Chuck Hagel	528	+5
R.8	Secy. Condoleezza Rice	426	-2
R.9	Gov. George Pataki	334	-2
R.10	Gov. Mike Huckabee	212	-1
R.11	Gov. Jeb Bush	195	-8
R.12	Newt Gingrich	193	-1
R.13	Rep. Tom Tancredo	18	0
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Hillary Clinton	2,910	0
D.2	Sen. John Kerry	2,450	0
D.3	Sen. Russ Feingold	1,470	+4
D.4	Sen. Harry Reid	1,020	0
D.5	Al Gore	931	-2
D.6	Sen. John Edwards	740	-1
D.7	Sen. Evan Bayh	601	+4
D.8	Gov. Mark Warner	415	+1
D.9	Howard Dean	365	-1
D.10	Sen. Joseph Biden	323	-4
D.11	Gov. Tom Vilsack	316	+2
D.12	Sen. Barack Obama	306	-2
D.13	Gov. Bill Richardson	227	-1
D.14	Wesley Clark	181	0
D.15	Tom Daschle	125	0

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month's tested-but-not-qualifying list is Rep. John Murtha, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, and Haley Barbour. Some of the men on the list almost surely won't run for president (Reid, Dean) and are there just in case, or as an indication of VP popularity.

See the Chatter Rankings from June, May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.

Free-For-All-2008: Does Exposure Mean Anything?

Wanted: A volunteer to execute the Chatter Rankings next month. You don't have to do any of the write-up stuff, but it would be very helpful to have data from mid-July. Email me if you're interested.

This month's Chatter Rankings come early, since I'm leaving the land of the internet shortly, and wanted to get one more edition in. Consequently, there's a high degree of intertemporal collinearity, since Google News lists articles from the past five weeks. Thus, we see much less change than in any previous ranking. There are, however, some big movers:

• Jeb Bush is suddenly being given consideration by the media. He won the "Best Governor" honor from his peers, and was lauded by his brother as someone who would make a good president. He has, however, said he won't run in 2008. 2012, then?
• Al Gore has emerged as the darling of the left, something he never enjoyed during his first run. He's now as sexy as Cannes can make a politician
• The Democrats are undergoing a groundswell of anti-Hillary feeling. Not only is the left half of the party unhappy with her, but more and more party Democrats think she can't win. One article highlights Florida poll data that suggests she has no advantage over Gore (the 2000 edition) or Kerry (2004).

So there are two opposite phenomena at work: Hillary could be losing out because of her early exposure and constant scrutiny of her, but Gore could be gaining from his new movie career. Hopefully, the continued Chatter Rankings will not only show us the levels of month-to-month publicity, but also open a window on how successful candidates gain their exposure.

The monthly prediction...
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice


Check out graphs of the Chatter Rankings from May 2005 through April 2006

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.1	Sen. John McCain	2,230	0
R.2	Sen. Bill Frist	1,600	0
R.3	Gov. Jeb Bush	919	+2
R.4	Sen. George Allen	468	+2
R.5	Rudy Giuliani	451	-2
R.6	Secy. Condoleezza Rice	425	-2
R.7	Gov. George Pataki	350	+1
R.8	Gov. Mitt Romney	344	-1
R.9	Gov. Mike Huckabee	318	0
R.10	Sen. Sam Brownback	225	0
R.11	Newt Gingrich	188	0
R.12	Sen. Chuck Hagel	126	+1
R.13	Rep. Tom Tancredo	72	-1
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Hillary Clinton	2,260	0
D.2	Sen. John Kerry	1,120	0
D.3	Al Gore	909	+3
D.4	Sen. Harry Reid	843	-1
D.5	Sen. John Edwards	698	-1
D.6	Sen. Joseph Biden	642	-1
D.7	Sen. Russ Feingold	532	+1
D.8	Howard Dean	520	-1
D.9	Gov. Mark Warner	455	0
D.10	Sen. Barack Obama	223	+1
D.11	Sen. Evan Bayh	187	-1
D.12	Gov. Bill Richardson	149	+1
D.13	Gov. Tom Vilsack	107	+1
D.14	Wesley Clark	89	-2
D.15	Tom Daschle	65	0

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month's tested-but-not-qualifying list is Rep. John Murtha, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, and Haley Barbour. Some of the men on the list almost surely won't run for president (Reid, Dean) and are there just in case, or as an indication of VP popularity.

See the Chatter Rankings from May, April, March, February, December, August, July, June, and May.

The Dorchester Giant

I found this poem today about the places I grew up in an old poetry anthology. Oliver Wendell Holmes, poet and Supreme Court Justice, speculates about the origins of the ubiquitous, curious puddingstone in the Boston area:

THERE was a giant in time of old,
A mighty one was he;
He had a wife, but she was a scold,
So he kept her shut in his mammoth fold;
And he had children three.

It happened to be an election day,
And the giants were choosing a king;
The people were not democrats then,
They did not talk of the rights of men,
And all that sort of thing.

Then the giant took his children three,
And fastened them in the pen;
The children roared; quoth the giant, "Be still!"
And Dorchester Heights and Milton Hill
Rolled back the sound again.

Then he brought them a pudding stuffed with plums,
As big as the State-House dome;
Quoth he, "There's something for you to eat;
So stop your mouths with your 'lection treat,
And wait till your dad comes home."

So the giant pulled him a chestnut stout,
And whittled the boughs away;
The boys and their mother set up a shout.
Said he, "You're in, and you can't get out,
Bellow as loud as you may."

Off he went, and he growled a tune
As he strode the fields along
'Tis said a buffalo fainted away,
And fell as cold as a lump of clay,
When he heard the giant's song.

But whether the story's true or not,
It isn't for me to show;
There's many a thing that's twice as queer
In somebody's lectures that we hear,
And those are true, you know.

. . . . . .

What are those lone ones doing now,
The wife and the children sad?
Oh, they are in a terrible rout,
Screaming, and throwing their pudding about,
Acting as they were mad.

They flung it over to Roxbury hills,
They flung it over the plain,
And all over Milton and Dorchester too
Great lumps of pudding the giants threw;
They tumbled as thick as rain.

. . . . .

Giant and mammoth have passed away,
For ages have floated by;
The suet is hard as a marrow-bone,
And every plum is turned to a stone,
But there the puddings lie.

And if, some pleasant afternoon,
You'll ask me out to ride,
The whole of the story I will tell,
And you shall see where the puddings fell,
And pay for the punch beside.

So why doesn't Dorchester High School field the Giants as their sports teams?