Monday, March 3, 2008

The Gravity Strategy

Since pulling out of Gaza in 2005, Israel has faced the troublesome issue of how to respond to daily Qassam rockets hitting the poor town of Sderot. While the rockets have killed just 13 - fewer than many single suicide bombings - the town has become a ghetto of those too poor to move. This weekend, Hamas forced the issue by acquiring some longer-range missiles, and hitting the city of Ashkelon. Israel's response, true to form, has been passive/aggressive: the latest round of back-and-forth has left 100 Palestinians and 3 Israelis dead.

Israel's all-or-nothing responses are not unjustified, but they are more deadly and less effective than they could be. By going after Palestinian leadership and dubiously identified military targets, they remove the punishment from the crime.

Instead, Gazans should learn that what goes up comes down. It should be child's play for the IDF to install rocket sites near Sderot that basically mirror Palestinian Qassam attacks - and go after the launch site, even if it's a house in a neighborhood. They can use low-impact rockets; maybe initially something like tear gas, just to prove to the neighborhood that Israel has the capability to hit right back. If the attacks persist, Gazans will learn the Gravity Principle: what goes up must come down. They'll learn that if Hamas militants fire rockets up from their street, a missile comes back down on the street 45 seconds later.

By being predictable, Israel can offer Palestinian civilians clear incentives: neighborhoods that purge militants will not be at risk of attacks. This allows Israel to appear fair and proportional without allowing deadly attacks against her citizens.

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