This NYT blog discusses data that partially answers questions I've had throughout the last decade's revelations of pedophilia by priests. Principally, is the abuse new, or only its revelation? The data suggest that there was truly a spike in abuse in the 60's through 80's, since some types of incident (abuse of children under 11, abuse of girls) are pretty constant through the period, while abuse of teenage boys skyrocketed. That's not proof, but it suggests that the Catholic Church went through a bad stretch from which it can recover with repentance and reform.
Of course, the Church must eventually readmit married men to priesthood, and the sooner the better, but that is for larger reasons.