Summer

Here are a few pictures out of the 200 I just uploaded from my camera. See Facebook for the balance.

Mission Possible

The top story on the NYTimes site yesterday showed that honest political observation still exists on the left. Two liberal Brookings Institution scholars took a trip to Iraq. Their finding? This is "a war we just might win". Based on their article, it seems the Bush administration has finally pulled together the right expertise on war, community relations, and development, and put it all under the right man: General David Petraeus. Imagine if the administration had done all this before entering Iraq!

James Taranto responds to the article in BOTWT, and a lot of other bloggers have picked it up as well.

Come On In, The Economy's Fine!

My professor Alan Stockman, a leading voice in the economics of international finance, has a brief paper for popular consumption on the confusing subject of the U.S. current account deficit. People who don't know economics think everything should go up: the dollar, the trade balance, the current account, GDP, investment - except a few things they understand, like unemployment and inflation.

As it turns out, there are plenty of things that can go down without hurting America. The dollar is one; and according to Stockman, the current account is another. He argues that the recent large current account and trade balance deficits are caused not by profligate U.S. spending but by a combination of high foreign savings (in Asia and Germany) and good investment opportunities in the U.S.

The paper is online, under the ever-so-accessible title, How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love the Current Account Deficit. (Note: if you read it, you'll be much better able to understand the specific research project that I am embarking on).

An Adage

The most powerful philosophical challenge to Christianity is this: How could a good Creator knowingly create beings destined for damnation? This has been addressed in many books, sermons, and dialogs. God gave me, as I questioned Him on this point, a pithy answer:

Any being with the moral intelligence to question the goodness of its Creator also has the moral intelligence to choose to obey or disobey, to worship or not to worship that Creator.

This is a spiritual cogito ergo sum. Restated in Cartesian terms:

I question, therefore I am accountable.

That is, God is just in judging me - even to the point of damnation - since I bear witness to my own moral freedom.

I do not pretend to have resolved the greatest question in the universe in a 100-word blog entry. However, any great question deserves many essays, and this I offer in that spirit.

The Building

A great deal of my summer will be invested in renovating the newly acquired home of Trinity Communion Church. The Democrat & Chronicle ran a short news item about us yesterday. The most amazing thing: by God's grace, we got the building for a song - $475,000, according to the D&C.

I couldn't find a picture of the building on the 'net - I'll provide one at some point. But I've been inside, and it's incredible: four stories, built into the side of a hill, with a Gothic-revival sanctuary from the 1920's at the very top, replete with stained-glass and bas-relief images of saints and their symbols. A good deal more work needs to go into it, but by September 9th it should be beautiful again.

Stalkerbook Item(s) of the Day

It's a sign of the times:

Mallory Beckett left the group South Carolinians for McCain. 4:57pm
Mallory Beckett joined the group Business Legend, Conservative Leader: Mitt Romney for President. 5:17pm

Go Mitt!

Free-For-All 2008: Can Giuliani Compete?

Two facts make the 2008 election one of the most interesting to watch in decades. First, both parties have wide open primaries with no incumbent. Second, the primary schedule has been torqued like never before as every state tries to move earlier and earlier in the year. Open the calendar here and read along.

The early primary may magnify or minimize the importance of New Hampshire (Iowa, I think, has already jumped the shark: caucuses are too finicky and the state is too small and homogeneous). Does a New Hampshire victory aid a candidate going into Super Duper Tuesday, or will it be too little, too late?

While the results remain (obviously) to be seen, I think the new calendar gives Rudy Giuliani a chance he never would have had otherwise. Not only does he have the money and name recognition to maintain an advantage in big states, he also benefits from earlier primaries by liberal states. Consider this scenario:

• 1/22: NH - Romney
• 1/29: FL - Romney
• 2/2: SC - Thompson
• 2/5: NY, NJ, CA, CT - Giuliani

Another candidate would have to sweep most of the other 23 states in play on Feb 5th - especially PA, IL, TX, and NC - in order to remain competitive. If Thompson and Romney split those, Giuliani is home free.

That's the technical side. Why would Giuliani's candidacy take off, though? He's obviously not a middle-of-the-party Republican. But plenty of primary voters might be so frightened by the specter of Hillary that they vote for the obvious "winnability" superstar. And he is: Giuliani would be a very, very difficult man to beat in a general election. Thus, oddly enough, a weakened, chastened Republican party might in fact be best positioned to win in 2008.

(On veeps: Giuliani needs a running mate from the South, preferably a Christian. I'm putting Thompson in, but it might as well be Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, or - even more likely - an unknown independent who won't steal Rudy's spotlight).

The monthly prediction...
Jul '07: Giuliani & Thompson over Clinton & Warner
Jun '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
May '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Romney
Apr '07: Clinton & Warner over McCain & Giuliani
Mar '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Feb '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Jan '07: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Dec '06: Clinton & Obama over McCain & Giuliani
Nov '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Oct '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Sep '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Aug '06: McCain & Giuliani over Clinton & Warner
Jul '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Jun '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
May '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Apr '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Romney
Mar '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice
Feb '06: Clinton & Warner over Allen & Rice

Rank	Candidate	Chatter	Rank Change
R.1	Sen. John McCain	5,004	0
R.2	Rudy Giuliani	4,362	0
R.3	Gov. Mitt Romney	3,274	0
R.4	Fred Thompson	2,107	0
R.5	Sen. Chuck Hagel	900	+9
R.6	Secy. Condoleezza Rice	669	+3
R.7	Ron Paul	563	0
R.8	Sen. Sam Brownback	543	0
R.9	Gov. Mike Huckabee	277	-3
R.10	Rep. Duncan Hunter	220	+1
R.11	Newt Gingrich	216	-6
R.12	Jim Gilmore	167	0
R.13	Rep. Tom Tancredo	144	-3
R.14	Tommy Thompson	140	-1
...............	...............................................	.......................	...............
D.1	Sen. Hillary Clinton	7,053	0
D.2	Sen. Barack Obama	4,578	0
D.3	Sen. John Edwards	3,724	0
D.4	Al Gore	1,910	+3
D.5	Gov. Bill Richardson	1,295	+1
D.6	Sen. John Kerry	936	+2
D.7	Sen. Joseph Biden	914	-2
D.8	Sen. Christopher Dodd	647	-4
D.9 (tie)	Rep. Dennis Kucinich	445	0
D.9 (tie)	Howard Dean	445	+3
D.11	Sen. Russ Feingold	285	-1
D.12	Mike Gravel	220	-1
D.13	Gov. Mark Warner	195	0
D.14	Wesley Clark	40	0

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database. This month tested but not qualifying is Jeb Bush (72). Non-contenders are kept on the rolls as Vice-Presidential possibilities (e.g. Rice) and benchmarks (e.g. Dean).

See recent graphs of the Chatter Rankings plus Chatter Rankings from June, May, April, March, February, January, December 2006, November, October, September, August, July, June, May, April, March, February, December 2005, August, July, June, and May.